Trends v2.0

Which trends move the needle

Every trend, ranked as on the home page: by its share of all the attention the list draws, by how far its attention rose or fell against the period before, or by how much it usually moves from week to week. Sensitivity is how strongly a trend bears on the scenarios, from 0 to 100; the composite weighs sensitivity at 40%, PageRank at 30%, betweenness at 20% and eigenvector centrality at 10%, each first scaled so its highest trend is 100.

Scores by scenario Download CSV

The trends with the largest share of attention, over the last week. 250 of 250 trends can be read for this. Select a column heading to sort by it.

Share is a trend's part of all the attention the 250 trends draw over the last week, from Wikipedia reading and Google searching. WoW is the change in its attention against the week before; Rising and Falling mean more than 12% up or down. Stable, Shifting and Turbulent say how much its attention usually moves from week to week (the standard deviation of its weekly change over the last 26 weeks): the quietest third of trends, the middle third, the busiest. The line is its share over three years.

#	Trend	Capability domain	Share	Change, WoW	Weekly move	Sensitivity	Composite
1	Mental health demand growth	Human Capital	4.1%	+25%	±7% Stable	7.5	20.3
2	Global South coalitions	Information & Influence	2.9%	+20%	±36% Turbulent	11.7	27.0
3	Heat & pollution health burden	Human Capital	2.3%	+22%	±36% Turbulent	5.8	6.1
4	Private military & proxy forces	National Security	2.3%	+20%	±9% Shifting	6.7	19.0
5	Contested maritime access	National Security	2.2%	−5%	±31% Turbulent	10.8	21.1
6	Chronic disease & obesity burden	Human Capital	2.1%	+1%	±7% Stable	15.0	23.6
7	Open-source intelligence & transparency	Information & Influence	2.0%	+36%	±12% Shifting	14.2	26.5
8	Shifting economic weight	Trade & Investment	2.0%	+10%	±27% Turbulent	5.8	26.6
9	Corruption & state capture	Governance & Integrity	2.0%	+23%	±7% Stable	23.3	60.9
10	Civil unrest & protest mobilisation	Governance & Integrity	1.8%	+81%	±22% Turbulent	18.3	40.4
11	Renewable generation expansion	Strategic Infrastructure	1.8%	+8%	±7% Stable	8.3	20.2
12	Synthetic media & deepfakes	Information & Influence	1.7%	+18%	±15% Turbulent	11.7	25.4
13	Biometric identification	Critical Technology	1.5%	+13%	±6% Stable	4.2	11.2
14	Electric transport & charging networks	Strategic Infrastructure	1.5%	+9%	±6% Stable	6.7	11.7
15	General-purpose AI capability	Critical Technology	1.4%	+1%	±8% Stable	12.5	23.9
16	Climate change & physical risk	Strategic Infrastructure	1.4%	−2%	±12% Turbulent	10.8	19.2
17	Drone & autonomous warfare	National Security	1.3%	+13%	±6% Stable	11.7	23.7
18	Rail & mass transit expansion	Strategic Infrastructure	1.2%	+10%	±5% Stable	6.7	9.6
19	State fragility & intrastate violence	National Security	1.2%	+18%	±8% Stable	10.0	14.7
20	Earth observation & geospatial sensing	Critical Technology	1.1%	+7%	±6% Stable	13.3	13.5
21	Fossil fuel supply & refining	Strategic Infrastructure	1.1%	−3%	±8% Stable	11.7	21.7
22	Polarisation & populism	Governance & Integrity	1.1%	+12%	±9% Shifting	22.5	52.9
23	Conspiracy movements & science denial	Information & Influence	1.1%	+19%	±6% Stable	13.3	27.5
24	Commercial launch & space access	Critical Technology	1.0%	−45%	±39% Turbulent	2.5	3.7
25	Misinformation & disinformation	Information & Influence	1.0%	+14%	±7% Stable	21.7	38.5
26	Next-generation mobile networks	Strategic Infrastructure	0.99%	+24%	±8% Stable	11.7	18.5
27	Structural inflation pressure	Financial Strength	0.96%	+10%	±9% Shifting	20.0	26.8
28	Batteries & energy storage	Production & Innovation	0.94%	−5%	±5% Stable	14.2	33.3
29	Advanced materials	Critical Technology	0.90%	+8%	±5% Stable	5.8	11.1
30	Illicit finance & beneficial ownership	Governance & Integrity	0.89%	+13%	±8% Shifting	19.2	43.3
31	Medical devices & neurotechnology	Production & Innovation	0.85%	+1%	±4% Stable	2.5	8.8
32	Quantum computing	Critical Technology	0.82%	−3%	±28% Turbulent	4.2	7.5
33	Executive overreach & emergency powers	Governance & Integrity	0.79%	+28%	±14% Turbulent	29.2	62.4
34	Connected infrastructure operation	Strategic Infrastructure	0.79%	+6%	±9% Shifting	12.5	18.5
35	Tariff barrier normalisation	Trade & Investment	0.76%	−10%	±18% Turbulent	10.8	29.4
36	Fusion energy	Critical Technology	0.76%	+7%	±12% Shifting	1.7	9.2
37	General-purpose & humanoid robotics	Critical Technology	0.73%	+5%	±9% Shifting	1.7	9.3
38	Pathogen emergence pressure	Human Capital	0.72%	+38%	±21% Turbulent	8.3	16.7
39	Satellite connectivity expansion	Strategic Infrastructure	0.72%	+44%	±16% Turbulent	10.0	16.5
40	Drones & advanced air mobility	Production & Innovation	0.71%	+18%	±12% Shifting	9.2	9.6
41	Erosion of rights & civic freedoms	Governance & Integrity	0.70%	+15%	±9% Shifting	19.2	54.0
42	AI & knowledge-work automation	Human Capital	0.70%	−2%	±8% Stable	10.8	29.7
43	Open-weight AI diffusion	Critical Technology	0.69%	+17%	±14% Turbulent	9.2	18.5
44	Biodiversity & ecosystem loss	Strategic Infrastructure	0.68%	+7%	±7% Stable	4.2	15.2
45	Solar manufacturing cost decline	Production & Innovation	0.68%	−17%	±15% Turbulent	10.0	22.3
46	Urban population concentration	Strategic Infrastructure	0.67%	+6%	±5% Stable	10.0	28.7
47	Conscription & reserve mobilisation	National Security	0.66%	−6%	±8% Stable	4.2	15.2
48	Data protection & digital rights	Governance & Integrity	0.64%	−4%	±6% Stable	15.8	33.3
49	Espionage & insider threat	National Security	0.63%	+36%	±8% Stable	10.8	13.0
50	Long-range strike proliferation	National Security	0.62%	+4%	±24% Turbulent	10.0	24.6
51	Subsea cable & pipeline dependence	Strategic Infrastructure	0.62%	+111%	±24% Turbulent	11.7	21.5
52	Grid expansion & demand flexibility	Strategic Infrastructure	0.62%	+11%	±7% Stable	10.0	19.7
53	Stablecoins & digital currencies	Financial Strength	0.62%	+10%	±8% Shifting	10.8	19.4
54	Online harms & safety	Information & Influence	0.60%	+5%	±6% Stable	4.2	13.0
55	Satellite positioning & timing dependence	Strategic Infrastructure	0.59%	+16%	±8% Stable	6.7	14.0
56	AI-mediated information access	Information & Influence	0.58%	+10%	±6% Stable	8.3	21.1
57	Organised crime & illicit economies	National Security	0.56%	+21%	±5% Stable	5.0	14.8
58	Rule of law & judicial independence	Governance & Integrity	0.55%	+6%	±6% Stable	25.8	65.3
59	Regulatory capture & lobbying power	Governance & Integrity	0.54%	−9%	±17% Turbulent	25.0	59.5
60	Biosecurity & dual-use biology	National Security	0.51%	+86%	±20% Turbulent	7.5	10.9
61	Cloud & edge computing	Critical Technology	0.50%	−5%	±9% Shifting	10.0	20.5
62	Early-warning coverage	Strategic Infrastructure	0.50%	−3%	±23% Turbulent	5.0	12.7
63	Militarisation of space	National Security	0.50%	+26%	±25% Turbulent	4.2	16.5
64	Undersea military competition	National Security	0.47%	+2%	±13% Turbulent	6.7	17.6
65	Automated AI research	Critical Technology	0.45%	−7%	±34% Turbulent	5.8	25.9
66	Advanced nuclear fission	Critical Technology	0.44%	−3%	±10% Shifting	4.2	11.7
67	Compute scaling & AI infrastructure	Critical Technology	0.43%	+2%	±9% Shifting	9.2	19.6
68	Water treatment & desalination	Strategic Infrastructure	0.42%	−11%	±6% Stable	10.0	24.6
69	Gene editing & cell therapies	Critical Technology	0.42%	−6%	±7% Stable	2.5	9.7
70	Persistent nutritional deprivation	Human Capital	0.39%	+6%	±9% Shifting	10.8	27.2
71	Remittance dependence	Financial Strength	0.39%	−4%	±9% Shifting	6.7	13.7
72	Capital concentration in AI	Financial Strength	0.39%	−2%	±14% Turbulent	15.0	27.7
73	Orbital debris & congestion	Critical Technology	0.39%	+27%	±17% Turbulent	0.0	0.0
74	Aquaculture intensification	Production & Innovation	0.38%	+5%	±7% Stable	1.7	5.6
75	Autonomous vehicles	Production & Innovation	0.38%	+5%	±11% Shifting	2.5	8.9
76	Fertiliser supply dependence	Trade & Investment	0.38%	+12%	±22% Turbulent	9.2	18.9
77	Antimicrobial resistance	Human Capital	0.37%	+25%	±7% Stable	6.7	22.7
78	Diet & nutrition shifts	Production & Innovation	0.37%	−8%	±6% Stable	5.0	6.8
79	AI chips & accelerator supply	Critical Technology	0.37%	+9%	±7% Stable	10.0	21.7
80	Regional trade agreement deepening	Trade & Investment	0.37%	+4%	±12% Turbulent	5.8	22.4
81	Nuclear arsenal growth & proliferation	National Security	0.36%	+3%	±12% Shifting	5.0	20.4
82	Ransomware & cyber extortion	National Security	0.36%	−28%	±51% Turbulent	3.3	16.6
83	Sustainable consumption & product durability	Production & Innovation	0.36%	−2%	±7% Stable	0.8	5.0
84	Electrification of heat & industry	Strategic Infrastructure	0.36%	+20%	±9% Shifting	8.3	27.3
85	Terrorism & violent extremism	National Security	0.35%	+4%	±11% Shifting	2.5	6.3
86	Alternative proteins	Production & Innovation	0.34%	+16%	±10% Shifting	2.5	6.5
87	Circular materials & recycling	Production & Innovation	0.34%	+15%	±6% Stable	2.5	7.1
88	Religious & identity nationalism	Information & Influence	0.34%	+23%	±10% Shifting	9.2	20.6
89	Persistently low fertility	Human Capital	0.33%	−9%	±6% Stable	0.8	5.5
90	Dollar dependence & payment fragmentation	Financial Strength	0.33%	−8%	±12% Shifting	17.5	33.0
91	Healthy lifespan divergence	Human Capital	0.33%	+17%	±6% Stable	5.8	12.2
92	AI safety & governance	Governance & Integrity	0.32%	−18%	±14% Turbulent	11.7	27.4
93	Lithography & chip-tool chokepoints	Critical Technology	0.31%	+23%	±20% Turbulent	7.5	21.0
94	Smart manufacturing & digital twins	Production & Innovation	0.30%	−8%	±5% Stable	10.8	17.2
95	Sovereign wealth & state capital	Trade & Investment	0.30%	−5%	±25% Turbulent	7.5	22.3
96	Hybrid & grey-zone coercion	National Security	0.30%	0%	±24% Turbulent	7.5	16.0
97	Dams, reservoirs & flood defence	Strategic Infrastructure	0.29%	−26%	±15% Turbulent	7.5	19.2
98	Sovereign debt & interest burden	Financial Strength	0.29%	+7%	±17% Turbulent	22.5	55.2
99	Foundational learning deficits	Human Capital	0.29%	−21%	±25% Turbulent	5.0	16.7
100	Slow growth & fiscal space	Financial Strength	0.28%	+5%	±13% Turbulent	27.5	41.4
101	Rare earth processing concentration	Trade & Investment	0.28%	−24%	±14% Turbulent	10.0	22.9
102	Lifelong learning & digital reskilling	Human Capital	0.27%	+21%	±7% Stable	10.8	19.7
103	Agricultural soil degradation	Strategic Infrastructure	0.27%	0%	±6% Stable	7.5	18.5
104	Outsourcing & public-private delivery	Governance & Integrity	0.27%	+6%	±5% Stable	15.8	39.8
105	State capacity & delivery	Governance & Integrity	0.26%	−6%	±4% Stable	52.5	83.4
106	Business dynamism & start-up formation	Production & Innovation	0.25%	+7%	±5% Stable	15.0	25.5
107	Skilled & research talent migration	Human Capital	0.25%	+49%	±13% Turbulent	7.5	12.2
108	Electromagnetic spectrum contest	National Security	0.24%	0%	±7% Stable	5.8	18.0
109	Media provenance & authentication	Information & Influence	0.24%	+32%	±20% Turbulent	10.8	23.0
110	Post-quantum cryptography transition	Critical Technology	0.24%	+23%	±10% Shifting	5.8	8.6
111	Enhanced geothermal	Critical Technology	0.24%	+19%	±11% Shifting	2.5	8.4
112	Age-related fiscal liabilities	Financial Strength	0.23%	+22%	±16% Turbulent	8.3	12.7
113	Construction productivity & housing supply	Production & Innovation	0.23%	+4%	±6% Stable	7.5	7.8
114	Freshwater stress & transboundary water	Strategic Infrastructure	0.23%	−10%	±9% Shifting	10.0	14.3
115	Health system demand imbalance	Human Capital	0.22%	+12%	±7% Stable	18.3	29.5
116	Asylum & migration system strain	Governance & Integrity	0.21%	+53%	±16% Turbulent	7.5	21.5
117	Sovereign creditor fragmentation	Financial Strength	0.21%	+34%	±14% Turbulent	8.3	24.9
118	Ocean economy	Production & Innovation	0.21%	+3%	±7% Stable	9.2	8.4
119	Development finance as influence	Information & Influence	0.21%	−9%	±8% Shifting	10.8	28.7
120	Adaptable vaccine platforms	Critical Technology	0.21%	+1%	±30% Turbulent	10.8	22.4
121	International student flows	Information & Influence	0.21%	+17%	±12% Shifting	5.8	8.9
122	Data-centre power & water demand	Strategic Infrastructure	0.20%	+2%	±10% Shifting	9.2	18.5
123	Censorship & surveillance	Information & Influence	0.20%	+7%	±8% Stable	6.7	22.7
124	Port & carrier concentration	Trade & Investment	0.20%	+12%	±6% Stable	6.7	24.0
125	Hydrogen & low-carbon fuels	Production & Innovation	0.20%	−13%	±9% Shifting	4.2	11.6
126	Global health governance	Governance & Integrity	0.19%	−4%	±11% Shifting	13.3	32.3
127	External liquidity buffer requirements	Financial Strength	0.19%	+6%	±14% Turbulent	15.0	32.9
128	Retail & food-service automation	Production & Innovation	0.19%	+6%	±16% Turbulent	1.7	4.5
129	Reproductive, maternal & child health	Human Capital	0.19%	−13%	±6% Stable	8.3	20.6
130	Technical & occupational skill shortages	Human Capital	0.19%	+21%	±7% Stable	25.0	44.4
131	Whole-of-society resilience	National Security	0.18%	+8%	±13% Turbulent	15.8	33.3
132	Soft power & cultural influence	Information & Influence	0.18%	−30%	±17% Turbulent	0.8	7.9
133	Non-tariff compliance & traceability	Trade & Investment	0.18%	+37%	±12% Shifting	7.5	14.4
134	Trade corridor competition	Trade & Investment	0.18%	−6%	±8% Stable	10.0	34.7
135	Entrenched opportunity inequality	Human Capital	0.18%	−4%	±20% Turbulent	21.7	55.8
136	Food loss & waste	Production & Innovation	0.17%	−12%	±7% Stable	5.0	14.0
137	Strategic stockpiles & reserves	Strategic Infrastructure	0.17%	−14%	±17% Turbulent	19.2	27.8
138	Agricultural technology	Production & Innovation	0.17%	+13%	±6% Stable	8.3	16.0
139	Reshoring & localised manufacturing	Production & Innovation	0.16%	−3%	±7% Stable	10.8	29.2
140	Sustainable finance & environmental risk	Financial Strength	0.16%	−1%	±14% Turbulent	10.0	16.8
141	Critical minerals supply constraints	Trade & Investment	0.16%	−15%	±9% Shifting	8.3	17.6
142	Digital sovereignty & data localisation	Critical Technology	0.16%	−1%	±9% Shifting	10.8	20.6
143	Household debt & housing affordability	Financial Strength	0.16%	+8%	±8% Stable	7.5	17.5
144	Regional medicines manufacturing	Production & Innovation	0.16%	−2%	±7% Stable	11.7	30.9
145	Frontier model concentration	Critical Technology	0.15%	−13%	±9% Shifting	6.7	16.5
146	Digital & AI-supported care	Human Capital	0.15%	−5%	±8% Stable	11.7	15.4
147	Non-bank finance growth	Financial Strength	0.15%	+1%	±6% Stable	7.5	26.0
148	Alliance realignment & burden-shifting	National Security	0.15%	−21%	±14% Turbulent	10.0	28.7
149	Industrial robotics & automation	Production & Innovation	0.15%	+9%	±9% Shifting	7.5	18.4
150	Lean inventories & just-in-time logistics	Trade & Investment	0.15%	−24%	±10% Shifting	8.3	14.6
151	Population ageing	Human Capital	0.14%	−5%	±6% Stable	10.8	23.8
152	Energy import dependence	Trade & Investment	0.14%	−21%	±8% Stable	13.3	19.0
153	Research & development intensity	Production & Innovation	0.14%	−12%	±8% Stable	28.3	46.3
154	Stretched asset valuations	Financial Strength	0.14%	+4%	±12% Shifting	5.0	17.3
155	Trade finance & correspondent banking gaps	Trade & Investment	0.14%	+3%	±7% Stable	9.2	13.2
156	Informal employment persistence	Human Capital	0.14%	+3%	±7% Stable	11.7	25.8
157	Financial inclusion	Financial Strength	0.13%	0%	±9% Shifting	10.0	10.1
158	Domestic capital market deepening	Financial Strength	0.13%	−4%	±8% Stable	10.8	29.6
159	Advanced semiconductors	Critical Technology	0.13%	−14%	±10% Shifting	8.3	16.5
160	Social protection coverage gaps	Governance & Integrity	0.13%	+53%	±10% Shifting	29.2	54.3
161	Critical infrastructure protection	National Security	0.12%	−8%	±9% Shifting	10.0	26.4
162	Platform power over public discourse	Information & Influence	0.12%	−11%	±10% Shifting	8.3	23.3
163	Weakening multilateral institutions	Information & Influence	0.12%	−13%	±17% Turbulent	11.7	26.7
164	Carbon pricing & environmental taxes	Governance & Integrity	0.12%	+3%	±11% Shifting	5.0	8.8
165	Staple food export concentration	Trade & Investment	0.12%	−21%	±10% Shifting	9.2	17.1
166	Concessional finance scarcity	Financial Strength	0.12%	−5%	±7% Stable	16.7	37.6
167	Intellectual property access dependence	Trade & Investment	0.12%	−12%	±9% Shifting	25.0	34.0
168	Gender participation divergence	Human Capital	0.11%	+11%	±8% Shifting	5.8	14.0
169	Access over ownership models	Production & Innovation	0.11%	+5%	±6% Stable	1.7	2.3
170	Persistent armed conflict	National Security	0.11%	−23%	±13% Turbulent	8.3	16.3
171	Food storage & cold chains	Strategic Infrastructure	0.10%	−18%	±9% Shifting	13.3	21.9
172	Tax base erosion & coordination	Financial Strength	0.10%	−14%	±8% Shifting	17.5	33.9
173	Youth population expansion	Human Capital	0.10%	−1%	±7% Stable	5.8	18.5
174	Commodity dependence & price volatility	Trade & Investment	0.10%	−6%	±6% Stable	23.3	29.7
175	Digital payments & cash decline	Financial Strength	0.10%	−18%	±16% Turbulent	13.3	22.2
176	Carbon capture, utilisation & storage	Production & Innovation	0.10%	−4%	±7% Stable	3.3	10.5
177	Telecom network resilience	Strategic Infrastructure	0.10%	+21%	±13% Turbulent	11.7	36.2
178	Arctic & polar competition	National Security	0.09%	+2%	±16% Turbulent	0.0	0.0
179	Digital language representation gaps	Information & Influence	0.09%	−19%	±9% Shifting	6.7	13.9
180	Youth employment exclusion	Human Capital	0.09%	−4%	±7% Stable	6.7	15.9
181	Quantum sensing & timing	Critical Technology	0.09%	−2%	±12% Shifting	2.5	4.7
182	Great-power competition	National Security	0.09%	−25%	±20% Turbulent	23.3	39.3
183	Urban cooling infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	0.09%	−8%	±14% Turbulent	3.3	18.1
184	Arms control erosion	National Security	0.09%	+17%	±9% Shifting	5.0	16.0
185	State cyber intrusion & prepositioning	National Security	0.09%	+13%	±10% Shifting	10.0	20.2
186	Rearmament & defence spending	National Security	0.08%	−15%	±13% Turbulent	9.2	19.3
187	Resilient construction & asset adaptation	Strategic Infrastructure	0.08%	−15%	±8% Shifting	5.0	13.9
188	AI inference efficiency	Critical Technology	0.08%	−8%	±10% Shifting	4.2	16.1
189	Foreign investment slowdown & selectivity	Trade & Investment	0.08%	−21%	±10% Shifting	15.8	41.1
190	Middle-power diplomatic leverage	Information & Influence	0.08%	−3%	±7% Stable	13.3	35.7
191	Distributed power	Strategic Infrastructure	0.08%	−13%	±6% Stable	8.3	26.4
192	Public procurement capability	Governance & Integrity	0.08%	−18%	±20% Turbulent	22.5	60.2
193	Carbon border adjustments	Trade & Investment	0.08%	+1%	±13% Turbulent	5.0	14.3
194	Public communication in crisis	Information & Influence	0.07%	−8%	±20% Turbulent	25.0	55.5
195	Digital public infrastructure	Governance & Integrity	0.07%	+6%	±29% Turbulent	15.8	37.8
196	Care labour demand growth	Human Capital	0.07%	+11%	±9% Shifting	8.3	25.4
197	Biomarker-guided precision medicine	Critical Technology	0.07%	−1%	±9% Shifting	6.7	10.1
198	Industrial policy competition	Production & Innovation	0.07%	−8%	±7% Stable	14.2	39.9
199	Bank funding & deposit mobility	Financial Strength	0.07%	−16%	±6% Stable	7.5	22.9
200	Africa's demographic & economic rise	Trade & Investment	0.07%	+39%	±11% Shifting	6.7	16.0
201	Citizen participation & deliberative democracy	Governance & Integrity	0.07%	−10%	±9% Shifting	6.7	28.8
202	Trade & investment fragmentation	Trade & Investment	0.07%	−10%	±11% Shifting	14.2	35.4
203	Local & city government capacity	Governance & Integrity	0.07%	−18%	±18% Turbulent	16.7	55.3
204	Infrastructure ageing & maintenance backlog	Strategic Infrastructure	0.07%	−13%	±15% Turbulent	8.3	34.5
205	Civil service capability & pay	Governance & Integrity	0.07%	+12%	±7% Stable	28.3	74.1
206	AI-supported military decisions	National Security	0.07%	−7%	±11% Shifting	4.2	13.3
207	Synthetic biology & biomanufacturing	Critical Technology	0.07%	−3%	±8% Stable	15.0	19.1
208	AI-accelerated science	Critical Technology	0.07%	0%	±12% Shifting	7.5	12.9
209	Commercial property repricing	Financial Strength	0.06%	+16%	±12% Shifting	4.2	10.9
210	Sanitation & hygiene access gaps	Human Capital	0.06%	−10%	±10% Shifting	6.7	14.1
211	Algorithmic accountability & bias	Governance & Integrity	0.06%	+5%	±8% Stable	8.3	19.4
212	Tokenisation of financial assets	Financial Strength	0.06%	−11%	±15% Turbulent	9.2	15.9
213	Migrant integration demands	Human Capital	0.06%	0%	±7% Stable	7.5	12.7
214	Diplomatic capacity under strain	Information & Influence	0.05%	−19%	±8% Stable	25.8	52.5
215	Fiscal rules & budget credibility	Governance & Integrity	0.05%	−7%	±15% Turbulent	20.8	49.0
216	AI drug development	Production & Innovation	0.05%	−6%	±16% Turbulent	9.2	20.4
217	Declining institutional trust	Information & Influence	0.05%	+5%	±8% Shifting	23.3	59.8
218	Graduate skill mismatch	Human Capital	0.05%	+20%	±9% Shifting	4.2	15.9
219	Technology diffusion & productivity gaps	Production & Innovation	0.05%	−20%	±14% Turbulent	20.0	40.9
220	Technical standards competition	Information & Influence	0.04%	−19%	±11% Shifting	17.5	31.6
221	Emerging middle-class demand	Trade & Investment	0.04%	−8%	±8% Shifting	1.7	11.1
222	Export controls & economic coercion	Trade & Investment	0.04%	−27%	±12% Shifting	15.0	37.1
223	Climate-related population relocation	Human Capital	0.04%	−16%	±9% Shifting	5.8	9.8
224	Election integrity & interference	Information & Influence	0.04%	+40%	±27% Turbulent	6.7	29.4
225	Pharmaceutical input concentration	Trade & Investment	0.04%	−29%	±11% Shifting	11.7	17.0
226	Hydrocarbon revenue dependence	Financial Strength	0.04%	−46%	±23% Turbulent	9.2	13.6
227	Decline of independent journalism	Information & Influence	0.04%	+1%	±16% Turbulent	12.5	39.3
228	Economic security policy	Trade & Investment	0.04%	−21%	±12% Shifting	14.2	32.7
229	Sanctions circumvention networks	Trade & Investment	0.03%	0%	±43% Turbulent	7.5	19.1
230	Manufacturing overcapacity	Production & Innovation	0.03%	−5%	±10% Shifting	10.0	31.5
231	Reliable energy access gaps	Strategic Infrastructure	0.03%	−17%	±18% Turbulent	5.0	13.5
232	Public-sector AI adoption	Governance & Integrity	0.03%	−17%	±10% Shifting	7.5	26.8
233	Foreign information manipulation	Information & Influence	0.03%	−7%	±14% Turbulent	10.8	24.5
234	Defence industrial base & munitions	National Security	0.03%	−33%	±11% Shifting	9.2	24.2
235	Diaspora politics & transnational repression	Information & Influence	0.03%	+32%	±14% Turbulent	5.0	15.9
236	Military logistics complexity	National Security	0.03%	−21%	±9% Shifting	8.3	24.1
237	International climate finance gaps	Financial Strength	0.03%	−16%	±9% Shifting	11.7	20.2
238	Central bank independence under pressure	Governance & Integrity	0.03%	−24%	±33% Turbulent	6.7	28.6
239	Insurance retreat & insurability	Financial Strength	0.02%	−14%	±15% Turbulent	7.5	17.7
240	Firm & black-start capacity	Strategic Infrastructure	0.02%	−5%	±6% Stable	10.0	21.0
241	Adaptive regulation	Governance & Integrity	0.02%	−31%	±16% Turbulent	23.3	37.4
242	Financial market infrastructure resilience	Financial Strength	0.02%	−3%	±13% Turbulent	12.5	26.9
243	Disaster risk finance	Financial Strength	0.02%	−8%	±11% Shifting	5.8	12.1
244	Official statistics & data capacity	Governance & Integrity	0.02%	−52%	±19% Turbulent	15.0	42.0
245	Digital & services trade growth	Trade & Investment	0.02%	−16%	±11% Shifting	15.0	21.2
246	Research security & science decoupling	Information & Influence	0.01%	−30%	±13% Turbulent	13.3	21.5
247	Critical input supplier concentration	Trade & Investment	0.01%	−4%	±12% Shifting	9.2	26.9
248	Health workforce scarcity	Human Capital	0.01%	−9%	±8% Shifting	12.5	32.5
249	Credibility of external commitments	Information & Influence	0.01%	−12%	±12% Shifting	13.3	28.3
250	Trade & logistics digitalisation	Trade & Investment	0.01%	−20%	±20% Turbulent	13.3	14.0