Tracking the top 250 trends
shaping national strategy
The trends with the largest share of all the attention the list draws, over the last week.
Share is a trend's part of all the attention the 250 trends draw over the last week, from Wikipedia reading for now. WoW is the change in its attention against the week before; Rising and Falling mean more than 12% up or down. Stable, Shifting and Turbulent say how much its attention usually moves from week to week (the standard deviation of its weekly change over the last 26 weeks): the quietest third of trends, the middle third, the busiest. The line is its share over three years.
The slow forces behind the scenarios
The 250 slow structural forces behind the scenarios, organised by the nine domains of national capability. Scenarios are shocks; trends are what raise or lower their likelihood and shape who is exposed. Every trend is scored against every scenario, and every trend against every other. This is the second pass of the list: three AI models revised it separately, settled their differences and GINC made the final cut.
- 250
- Structural trends
- 9
- Capability domains
- 20
- Scenarios scored against
The 10 themes
Themes are the clusters of the trend network. Trends are linked where their similarity is Moderate or above, and the Louvain method finds the groups of trends that are more closely linked to each other than to the rest. The groups are found by the method; the names and descriptions are GINC's.
Trade, industry & supply chains
45 trendsWho depends on whom for goods, inputs and markets; the tariffs, controls and industrial policy used to change it; and the manufacturing and clean-technology supply chains it is fought over.
Highest ranked
People, health & work
43 trendsHow many people there are, how well and how skilled they are, what work is left for them as automation spreads, and the medicine and health systems that keep them well.
Highest ranked
Conflict & security
30 trendsRivalry between powers, the weapons and forces being built for it, the contest in cyberspace, at sea and in orbit, and the violence of states that are failing.
Highest ranked
Energy, networks & climate resilience
28 trendsThe physical systems a nation runs on: power, fuel, transport, water and communications, and their exposure to a changing climate and to the hazards it brings.
Highest ranked
State capacity & governance
26 trendsWhether the state can decide, deliver and be held to account: administration, regulation, integrity, the rule of law, and the politics that strain them.
Highest ranked
Money & debt
25 trendsPublic debt and fiscal room, the currencies and payment systems money moves through, and the banks, markets and non-bank lenders that can seize up.
Highest ranked
Information & trust
18 trendsWhat people can know and whom they believe: platforms, journalism, synthetic media, manipulation from abroad and the trust in institutions that all of it wears down.
Highest ranked
AI, compute & quantum
14 trendsThe capability of AI systems, who controls the models, chips and cloud they depend on, and the quantum technologies that will unsettle today’s cryptography.
Highest ranked
Food, water & nature
11 trendsThe land, water and living systems that food comes from, the inputs and trade it depends on, and the technologies that could raise output or lower its cost to nature.
Highest ranked
Diplomacy & influence
10 trendsA nation’s standing and leverage abroad: coalitions, multilateral institutions, standards, development finance, students and culture, and the credibility of its commitments.
Highest ranked
The 9 capability domains
Each trend is assigned to the one domain of the National Capability Framework it bears on most. The assignment was proposed by the model panel and settled in the final cut.
Critical Technology
28 trendsHard · most sensitive
Strategic Infrastructure
29 trendsHard · most sensitive
National Security
28 trendsHard · most sensitive
Human Capital
28 trendsSoft · most sensitive
Information & Influence
27 trendsSoft · most sensitive
Governance & Integrity
27 trendsSoft · most sensitive
Financial Strength
27 trendsEconomic · most sensitive
Production & Innovation
28 trendsEconomic · most sensitive
A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel. Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Eigenvector centrality gathers in the densest cluster of the network and gives little to trends outside it. It is reported for completeness and carries the least weight in the composite.
How the list changed
The list was put to three AI models. Each revised it separately, then saw the other two lists and settled on its own final 250. GINC made the final cut from the three, one domain at a time. Of the final 250, 219 were held by all three models, 27 by two and 4 by one. How the second pass was run.
- 119
- Carried forward unchanged, 1 more moved domain
- 106
- Carried forward, renamed
- 24
- Added
- 24
- Lost: 15 merged, 9 dropped
Added
24Critical TechnologyAI inference efficiency · Quantum sensing & timing · Orbital debris & congestion
Strategic InfrastructureUrban cooling infrastructure · Agricultural soil degradation · Food storage & cold chains
National SecurityMilitary logistics complexity · AI-supported military decisions · Electromagnetic spectrum contest · State cyber intrusion & prepositioning · Undersea military competition
Human CapitalMigrant integration demands · Healthy lifespan divergence
Information & InfluenceMedia provenance & authentication · Digital language representation gaps · Credibility of external commitments
Governance & IntegrityAlgorithmic accountability & bias
Financial StrengthExternal liquidity buffer requirements · Domestic capital market deepening · Financial market infrastructure resilience
Production & InnovationTechnology diffusion & productivity gaps · Aquaculture intensification
Trade & InvestmentNon-tariff compliance & traceability · Intellectual property access dependence
Merged
15- Obesity & GLP-1 medicines into Chronic disease & obesity burden
- Earth system tipping points into Climate change & physical risk
- Smart cities & buildings into Connected infrastructure operation
- Indo-Pacific maritime disputes into Contested maritime access
- AI diagnostics & predictive health into Digital & AI-supported care
- Digital payments & FinTech into Digital payments & cash decline
- Fossil fuel resurgence into Fossil fuel supply & refining
- Grid enhancement into Grid expansion & demand flexibility
- Heat stress & labour productivity into Heat & pollution health burden
- Cyber insecurity into Ransomware & cyber extortion
- Friend-shoring & regional trade blocs into Regional trade agreement deepening
- Women's health & fertility care into Reproductive, maternal & child health
- Seismic & geophysical hazard into Resilient construction & asset adaptation
- Climate adaptation & resilience into Resilient construction & asset adaptation
- Space weather exposure into Satellite positioning & timing dependence
Dropped
9- Defence technology National Security
- Changing nature of work Human Capital
- US policy volatility Information & Influence
- China's economic slowdown Financial Strength
- Taiwan Strait tension National Security
- Russia–NATO confrontation National Security
- Middle East instability National Security
- Extended reality & immersive media Production & Innovation
- Longevity science Human Capital
Four of the nine were single theatres or single nations, which the panel judged to be situations, not structural forces. The rest were too broad or too thin to keep.
Moved domain
3- Critical infrastructure protection Strategic Infrastructure to National Security
- Port & carrier concentration Strategic Infrastructure to Trade & Investment
- Satellite connectivity expansion Critical Technology to Strategic Infrastructure