Sensitivity and network position
- Rank
- 39of 250
- Sensitivity
- 8.3rank 138
- Breadth
- 2of 20 scenarios High or above
- PageRank
- 46.5rank 57
- Eigenvector
- 11.3
- Betweenness
- 65.6
- Links
- 20trends at Moderate similarity or above
- Composite
- 34.5
Attention over three years
How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.
- Share of attention
- 0.07%rank 207 of 250 · a year earlier 0.06%
- Now
- 93
- Over a year
- +26%Rising
- Over three years
- −30%
- Peak
- 6042 Jun 2024
- Sources
- Bothagreement 0.08
- Coverage
- 8languages · 25 nations
Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.
By language
Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (8 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.
| Language | Share | Now | Over a year | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| English | 64% | 107 | +7% | |
| Japanese | 9% | 82 | −8% | |
| Russian | 9% | 89 | +2% | |
| German | 7% | 98 | +18% | |
| Polish | 4% | 68 | +17% | |
| Spanish | 3% | 117 | +47% | |
| Italian | 2% | 104 | +29% | |
| Portuguese | 1% | 126 | +52% |
By country
Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.
100
52
8
7
5
5
4
4
3
3
3
3
The 12 highest of 25 nations with a reading. All countries (CSV).
By region and G20 member
Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.
Regions
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | Google in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English | 97 | +32% | +10% | +17% | |
| Europe | Google in 7 countries + Wikipedia in German, Italian, Polish | 98 | +22% | +12% | −10% | |
| China | Google in 1 country | 138 | −3% | +93% | +19% | |
| Indo-Pacific | Google in 5 countries + Wikipedia in Japanese | 76 | +8% | −30% | −35% | |
| Gulf and Middle East | Google in 2 countries | 97 | +46% | −33% | −3% | |
| Latin America and Caribbean | Google in 1 country + Wikipedia in Spanish, Portuguese | 105 | +21% | +11% | −7% | |
| Russia and Eurasia | Google in 3 countries + Wikipedia in Russian | 75 | +6% | −4% | −46% |
G20 members
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | Google + Wikipedia in Portuguese | 108 | +17% | +13% | +1% | |
| Canada | 26 | +29% | +30% | +150% | ||
| China | 138 | −3% | +93% | +19% | ||
| France | 120 | −19% | +36% | +68% | ||
| Germany | Google + Wikipedia in German | 105 | +42% | +16% | +17% | |
| Indonesia | 70 | +25% | −40% | −53% | ||
| Italy | Google + Wikipedia in Italian | 119 | +62% | +23% | +1% | |
| Japan | Google + Wikipedia in Japanese | 74 | +9% | −39% | −34% | |
| South Korea | 74 | +21% | −48% | −22% | ||
| Russia | Wikipedia in Russian | 89 | −4% | +2% | −38% | |
| Türkiye | 96 | +48% | −37% | +6% | ||
| United States | Google + Wikipedia in English | 108 | +39% | +10% | +16% |
Share of attention by region
GINC Share of Attention: this trend's share of all the public attention the trends in the list draw, worldwide and in each region, week by week (a 4-week average). Each place is read from the Wikipedia languages mostly read there and Google searching in its countries; where a place's language is shared with others, as English is, Google stands alone.
| Place | Share, last 13 weeks | Rank there | A year earlier | Read from |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 0.07% | 207 of 250 | 0.06% | Wikipedia reading in all 28 languages, and Google searching worldwide |
| Asia Pacific | 0.06% | 213 of 250 | 0.08% | Wikipedia reading in the region's own languages, not English; Google searching in 15 countries, not China |
| Europe | 0.13% | 160 of 250 | 0.13% | German, French, Italian, Polish, Dutch and Swedish reading; Google searching in 10 countries, the UK among them |
| Africa | 0.02% | 219 of 250 | 0.07% | Google searching in 7 countries; Afrikaans and Swahili reading reaches too few trends to count |
| South America | 0.26% | 104 of 250 | 0.21% | Spanish and Portuguese reading, Spanish also read in Spain; Google searching in 5 countries |
| North America | 0.10% | 140 of 249 | 0.07% | Google searching in the United States, Canada and Mexico; English reading cannot be split by country |
| Oceania | 0.01% | 238 of 249 | 0.01% | Google searching in Australia and New Zealand; English reading cannot be split by country |
| United States | 0.15% | 111 of 249 | 0.09% | Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country |
| United Kingdom | 0.00% | 242 of 249 | 0.00% | Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country |
| India | 0.00% | 246 of 249 | 0.00% | Google searching; Hindi, Bengali and Tamil reading reaches too few trends to count, and English cannot be split by country |
| China | · | · | · | Wikipedia and Google are blocked in China; no open source counts reading there |
| Russia | 0.15% | 155 of 203 | 0.16% | Russian reading, which is also done across the former Soviet states; Google's figures for Russia cannot be bought |
| Japan | 0.20% | 139 of 250 | 0.33% | Japanese reading and Google searching |
| Germany | 0.22% | 117 of 250 | 0.23% | German reading and Google searching |
| France | 0.06% | 201 of 250 | 0.08% | French reading, also done in Africa and Canada, and Google searching |
| Italy | 0.18% | 114 of 250 | 0.09% | Italian reading and Google searching |
| South Korea | 0.04% | 209 of 250 | 0.04% | Korean reading and Google searching |
| Indonesia | 0.10% | 115 of 250 | 0.10% | Google searching; Indonesian reading reaches too few trends to count |
| Brazil | 0.40% | 64 of 250 | 0.32% | Portuguese reading and Google searching |
| Türkiye | 0.02% | 46 of 250 | 0.01% | Google searching; Turkish reading reaches too few trends to count |
Relation to each scenario
A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.
Related trends
Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.
| Similarity | Trend | Theme | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 · High | Local & city government capacity | State capacity & governance | 11 |
| 4 · High | Urban population concentration | Energy, networks & climate resilience | 61 |
| 4 · High | Urban cooling infrastructure | Energy, networks & climate resilience | 151 |
| 4 · High | Resilient construction & asset adaptation | Energy, networks & climate resilience | 194 |
| 3 · Moderate | Public procurement capability | State capacity & governance | 6 |
| 3 · Moderate | Outsourcing & public-private delivery | State capacity & governance | 27 |
| 3 · Moderate | Telecom network resilience | Energy, networks & climate resilience | 35 |
| 3 · Moderate | Electrification of heat & industry | Energy, networks & climate resilience | 70 |
| 3 · Moderate | Distributed power | Energy, networks & climate resilience | 81 |
| 3 · Moderate | Water treatment & desalination | Energy, networks & climate resilience | 89 |
| 3 · Moderate | Subsea cable & pipeline dependence | Energy, networks & climate resilience | 114 |
| 3 · Moderate | Firm & black-start capacity | Energy, networks & climate resilience | 119 |
| 3 · Moderate | Grid expansion & demand flexibility | Energy, networks & climate resilience | 131 |
| 3 · Moderate | Dams, reservoirs & flood defence | Energy, networks & climate resilience | 137 |
| 3 · Moderate | Connected infrastructure operation | Energy, networks & climate resilience | 145 |
| 3 · Moderate | Ransomware & cyber extortion | Conflict & security | 164 |
| 3 · Moderate | Satellite connectivity expansion | Energy, networks & climate resilience | 167 |
| 3 · Moderate | Reliable energy access gaps | Energy, networks & climate resilience | 197 |
| 3 · Moderate | Early-warning coverage | Energy, networks & climate resilience | 204 |
| 3 · Moderate | Rail & mass transit expansion | Energy, networks & climate resilience | 224 |