Strategic Infrastructure

Early-warning coverage

Observation and communication technologies are extending hazard forecasting and alerts, but losses are avoided only where warnings reach people in time and still work when power and networks fail.

Attention Share over time

GINC's attention score, worldwide and in each region: 100 is this trend's own three-year average in each place, as an 8-week average.

Regional Attention

By region

This trend’s share of all the attention the 250 trends draw in each region, and its rank there.

Latin America & Caribbean

Central Asia

8.9%

6.6%

2.3%

0.67%

0.24%

0.23%

115

0.14%

169

0.13%

122

0.12%

120

0.11%

176

0.02%

171

By country

This trend’s share of all the attention the 250 trends draw in each country, and its rank there: the 12 highest of 48.

19.8%

18.1%

7.9%

4.5%

4.3%

3.9%

3.8%

3.2%

2.9%

2.4%

2.3%

2.2%

The ten trends most like this one: each one's share of attention over the period chosen, largest first, and over three years.

Climate change & physical risk

Biodiversity & ecosystem loss

Urban population concentration

Water treatment & desalination

Dams, reservoirs & flood defence

Telecom network resilience

Urban cooling infrastructure

Resilient construction & asset adaptation

Infrastructure ageing & maintenance backlog

Insurance retreat & insurability

1.8%

0.66%

0.64%

0.61%

0.27%

0.12%

0.08%

0.06%

0.02%

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.

Downside scenarios

Scenario	Relevance
A major disaster disables the national economic core S07 Energy, climate and resources	4 · High
Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06 Energy, climate and resources	2 · Low
Critical trade divides into rival blocs S01 Economic and trade	0 · Not related
A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02 Economic and trade	0 · Not related
A regional war closes a globally important sea route S03 Geopolitical and security	0 · Not related
Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04 Geopolitical and security	0 · Not related
A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05 Geopolitical and security	0 · Not related
An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08 Technology and infrastructure	0 · Not related
A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09 Technology and infrastructure	0 · Not related
A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10 Health	0 · Not related

Upside scenarios

Scenario	Relevance
A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 Economic and trade	0 · Not related
A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 Economic and trade	0 · Not related
A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 Geopolitical and security	0 · Not related
A verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 Geopolitical and security	0 · Not related
Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 Energy, climate and resources	0 · Not related
A validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 Energy, climate and resources	0 · Not related
AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 Technology and infrastructure	0 · Not related
A public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 Technology and infrastructure	0 · Not related
Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 Health	0 · Not related
A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 Health	0 · Not related