Sensitivity and network position
- Rank
- 1of 250
- Sensitivity
- 52.5rank 1
- Breadth
- 7of 20 scenarios High or above
- PageRank
- 100.0rank 1
- Eigenvector
- 93.0
- Betweenness
- 20.4
- Links
- 26trends at Moderate similarity or above
- Composite
- 83.4
Attention over three years
How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.
- Share of attention
- 0.29%rank 100 of 250 · a year earlier 0.30%
- Now
- 94
- Over a year
- −4%Steady
- Over three years
- −8%
- Peak
- 12815 Oct 2023
- Sources
- Bothagreement 0.33
- Coverage
- 11languages · 55 nations
Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.
By language
Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (11 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.
| Language | Share | Now | Over a year | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| English | 57% | 90 | −3% | |
| Spanish | 13% | 107 | +7% | |
| German | 9% | 101 | +5% | |
| Russian | 6% | 84 | −15% | |
| Arabic | 4% | 110 | +38% | |
| Indonesian | 3% | 84 | −22% | |
| Thai | 2% | 96 | +41% | |
| Chinese | 2% | 78 | −24% | |
| Ukrainian | 1% | 93 | +22% | |
| Persian | 1% | 105 | +33% | |
| Malay | 1% | 75 | −1% |
By country
Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.
100
40
34
34
24
19
19
16
16
13
13
11
The 12 highest of 55 nations with a reading. All countries (CSV).
By region and G20 member
Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.
Regions
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | Google in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English | 95 | −1% | −5% | −10% | |
| Europe | Google in 9 countries + Wikipedia in German | 98 | −9% | +3% | −8% | |
| Indo-Pacific | Google in 9 countries + Wikipedia in Chinese, Indonesian, Thai, Malay | 86 | −1% | −17% | −26% | |
| South Asia | Google in 3 countries | 73 | −9% | −23% | −40% | |
| Gulf and Middle East | Google in 1 country + Wikipedia in Persian, Arabic | 129 | +86% | −7% | +12% | |
| Africa | Google in 5 countries | 69 | −2% | −16% | −54% | |
| Latin America and Caribbean | Google in 6 countries + Wikipedia in Spanish | 96 | +9% | −13% | +2% | |
| Russia and Eurasia | Google in 1 country + Wikipedia in Russian, Ukrainian | 65 | −27% | −25% | −45% |
G20 members
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 93 | +13% | +7% | −26% | ||
| Australia | 97 | −27% | +21% | +21% | ||
| Brazil | 72 | +10% | −34% | −35% | ||
| Canada | 93 | −24% | −4% | +2% | ||
| France | 86 | −15% | −6% | −18% | ||
| Germany | Google + Wikipedia in German | 91 | −10% | −7% | −15% | |
| India | 77 | −19% | −3% | −36% | ||
| Indonesia | Google + Wikipedia in Indonesian | 84 | +6% | −18% | −32% | |
| Italy | 79 | +20% | −33% | −36% | ||
| Japan | 104 | +75% | −9% | −6% | ||
| South Korea | 91 | +74% | −42% | −4% | ||
| Mexico | 92 | +39% | −44% | +17% | ||
| Russia | Wikipedia in Russian | 85 | −12% | −15% | −37% | |
| South Africa | 80 | −3% | −21% | −14% | ||
| Türkiye | 149 | +181% | −24% | +83% | ||
| United Kingdom | 116 | −6% | +69% | +30% | ||
| United States | Google + Wikipedia in English | 96 | +4% | −6% | −9% |
Share of attention by region
GINC Share of Attention: this trend's share of all the public attention the trends in the list draw, worldwide and in each region, week by week (a 4-week average). Each place is read from the Wikipedia languages mostly read there and Google searching in its countries; where a place's language is shared with others, as English is, Google stands alone.
| Place | Share, last 13 weeks | Rank there | A year earlier | Read from |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 0.29% | 100 of 250 | 0.30% | Wikipedia reading in all 28 languages, and Google searching worldwide |
| Asia Pacific | 0.52% | 55 of 250 | 0.51% | Wikipedia reading in the region's own languages, not English; Google searching in 15 countries, not China |
| Europe | 0.11% | 178 of 250 | 0.15% | German, French, Italian, Polish, Dutch and Swedish reading; Google searching in 10 countries, the UK among them |
| Africa | 0.53% | 39 of 250 | 0.75% | Google searching in 7 countries; Afrikaans and Swahili reading reaches too few trends to count |
| South America | 0.39% | 71 of 250 | 0.47% | Spanish and Portuguese reading, Spanish also read in Spain; Google searching in 5 countries |
| North America | 0.09% | 143 of 249 | 0.11% | Google searching in the United States, Canada and Mexico; English reading cannot be split by country |
| Oceania | 0.04% | 195 of 249 | 0.04% | Google searching in Australia and New Zealand; English reading cannot be split by country |
| United States | 0.09% | 147 of 249 | 0.07% | Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country |
| United Kingdom | 0.02% | 204 of 249 | 0.03% | Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country |
| India | 0.22% | 76 of 249 | 0.12% | Google searching; Hindi, Bengali and Tamil reading reaches too few trends to count, and English cannot be split by country |
| China | · | · | · | Wikipedia and Google are blocked in China; no open source counts reading there |
| Russia | 0.32% | 90 of 203 | 0.30% | Russian reading, which is also done across the former Soviet states; Google's figures for Russia cannot be bought |
| Japan | 0.11% | 173 of 250 | 0.11% | Japanese reading and Google searching |
| Germany | 0.18% | 135 of 250 | 0.22% | German reading and Google searching |
| France | 0.02% | 239 of 250 | 0.03% | French reading, also done in Africa and Canada, and Google searching |
| Italy | 0.10% | 161 of 250 | 0.13% | Italian reading and Google searching |
| South Korea | 0.12% | 153 of 250 | 0.10% | Korean reading and Google searching |
| Indonesia | 0.57% | 34 of 250 | 0.45% | Google searching; Indonesian reading reaches too few trends to count |
| Brazil | 0.11% | 145 of 250 | 0.12% | Portuguese reading and Google searching |
| Türkiye | 0.03% | 33 of 250 | 0.03% | Google searching; Turkish reading reaches too few trends to count |
Relation to each scenario
A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.
Related trends
Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.
| Similarity | Trend | Theme | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 · High | Civil service capability & pay | State capacity & governance | 2 |
| 4 · High | Rule of law & judicial independence | State capacity & governance | 3 |
| 4 · High | Executive overreach & emergency powers | State capacity & governance | 4 |
| 4 · High | Corruption & state capture | State capacity & governance | 5 |
| 4 · High | Public procurement capability | State capacity & governance | 6 |
| 4 · High | Regulatory capture & lobbying power | State capacity & governance | 8 |
| 4 · High | Local & city government capacity | State capacity & governance | 11 |
| 4 · High | Social protection coverage gaps | State capacity & governance | 13 |
| 4 · High | Erosion of rights & civic freedoms | State capacity & governance | 14 |
| 4 · High | Polarisation & populism | State capacity & governance | 15 |
| 4 · High | Fiscal rules & budget credibility | State capacity & governance | 17 |
| 4 · High | Civil unrest & protest mobilisation | State capacity & governance | 25 |
| 4 · High | Outsourcing & public-private delivery | State capacity & governance | 27 |
| 4 · High | Citizen participation & deliberative democracy | State capacity & governance | 60 |
| 3 · Moderate | Declining institutional trust | Information & trust | 7 |
| 3 · Moderate | Public communication in crisis | Information & trust | 10 |
| 3 · Moderate | Sovereign debt & interest burden | Money & debt | 12 |
| 3 · Moderate | Diplomatic capacity under strain | Diplomacy & influence | 16 |
| 3 · Moderate | Illicit finance & beneficial ownership | State capacity & governance | 20 |
| 3 · Moderate | Official statistics & data capacity | State capacity & governance | 21 |
| 3 · Moderate | Decline of independent journalism | Information & trust | 29 |
| 3 · Moderate | Digital public infrastructure | State capacity & governance | 31 |
| 3 · Moderate | Adaptive regulation | State capacity & governance | 33 |
| 3 · Moderate | Data protection & digital rights | State capacity & governance | 44 |
| 3 · Moderate | Central bank independence under pressure | State capacity & governance | 64 |
| 3 · Moderate | Asylum & migration system strain | State capacity & governance | 115 |