Trade & Investment

Staple food export concentration

World trade in wheat, rice, maize and soya comes from a small number of exporting regions that restrict shipments when harvests fail, leaving food-importing nations exposed to shortages and sharp price rises.

Attention Share over time

GINC's attention score, worldwide and in each region: 100 is this trend's own three-year average in each place, as an 8-week average.

Regional Attention

By region

This trend’s share of all the attention the 250 trends draw in each region, and its rank there.

Latin America & Caribbean

0.33%

0.29%

0.26%

0.14%

169

0.13%

164

0.12%

146

0.08%

208

0.04%

211

0.03%

235

0.03%

197

0.01%

203

By country

This trend’s share of all the attention the 250 trends draw in each country, and its rank there: the 12 highest of 49.

0.65%

0.51%

0.35%

0.34%

0.33%

0.32%

0.29%

0.28%

0.27%

The ten trends most like this one: each one's share of attention over the period chosen, largest first, and over three years.

Fertiliser supply dependence

Persistent nutritional deprivation

Agricultural soil degradation

Agricultural technology

Food loss & waste

Commodity dependence & price volatility

Food storage & cold chains

Africa's demographic & economic rise

0.44%

0.41%

0.28%

0.18%

0.13%

0.12%

0.07%

Scenario Relevance

A trend is relevant to a GINC Scenario where it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each trend is graded against every scenario on a seven-point scale from Nil to Critical.

Downside scenarios

Scenario	Relevance
S06 Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis Energy, climate and resources	Critical
S01 Critical trade divides into rival blocs Economic and trade	Nil
S02 A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets Economic and trade	Nil
S03 A regional war closes a globally important sea route Geopolitical and security	Nil
S04 Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout Geopolitical and security	Nil
S05 A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government Geopolitical and security	Nil
S07 A major disaster disables the national economic core Energy, climate and resources	Nil
S08 An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement Technology and infrastructure	Nil
S09 A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust Technology and infrastructure	Nil
S10 A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity Health	Nil

Upside scenarios

Scenario	Relevance
S16 A validated farming package raises water-efficient output Energy, climate and resources	Very high
S11 A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity Economic and trade	Nil
S12 A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment Economic and trade	Nil
S13 A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers Geopolitical and security	Nil
S14 A verified Middle East settlement restores access Geopolitical and security	Nil
S15 Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale Energy, climate and resources	Nil
S17 AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step Technology and infrastructure	Nil
S18 A public service platform reaches inclusive operation Technology and infrastructure	Nil
S19 Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness Health	Nil
S20 A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence Health	Nil