Sensitivity and network position
- Rank
- 182of 250
- Sensitivity
- 5.0rank 208
- Breadth
- 0of 20 scenarios High or above
- PageRank
- 18.9rank 209
- Eigenvector
- 8.8
- Betweenness
- 22.1
- Links
- 8trends at Moderate similarity or above
- Composite
- 14.8
Attention over three years
How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.
- Share of attention
- 0.51%rank 59 of 250 · a year earlier 0.57%
- Now
- 82
- Over a year
- −9%Steady
- Over three years
- −25%
- Peak
- 23424 Dec 2023
- Sources
- Bothagreement -0.48
- Coverage
- 19languages · 56 nations
Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.
By language
Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (19 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.
| Language | Share | Now | Over a year | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| English | 52% | 100 | −6% | |
| Spanish | 11% | 96 | −11% | |
| Russian | 6% | 108 | +1% | |
| German | 4% | 112 | +13% | |
| Japanese | 4% | 96 | 0% | |
| French | 4% | 102 | −9% | |
| Chinese | 3% | 101 | −5% | |
| Italian | 3% | 102 | +3% | |
| Persian | 2% | 125 | +27% | |
| Arabic | 2% | 102 | −18% | |
| Portuguese | 2% | 92 | −28% | |
| Polish | 2% | 105 | −8% | |
| Turkish | 2% | 113 | −2% | |
| Indonesian | 1% | 87 | −6% | |
| Vietnamese | 1% | 138 | +39% | |
| Dutch | 1% | 106 | −11% | |
| Hebrew | 1% | 128 | +17% | |
| Ukrainian | 0% | 124 | +8% | |
| Swedish | 0% | 97 | −27% |
By country
Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.
100
80
60
54
51
48
43
41
37
36
35
31
The 12 highest of 56 nations with a reading. All countries (CSV).
By region and G20 member
Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.
Regions
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | Google in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English | 87 | +22% | −11% | −24% | |
| Europe | Google in 9 countries + Wikipedia in German, French, Italian, Polish, Dutch, Swedish | 105 | +16% | −2% | −2% | |
| Indo-Pacific | Google in 10 countries + Wikipedia in Japanese, Chinese, Vietnamese, Indonesian | 111 | +40% | +9% | +2% | |
| South Asia | Google in 1 country | 112 | +27% | +7% | +61% | |
| Gulf and Middle East | Google in 2 countries + Wikipedia in Persian, Arabic, Turkish, Hebrew | 110 | +13% | −9% | +38% | |
| Africa | Google in 3 countries | 73 | −8% | −18% | −39% | |
| Latin America and Caribbean | Google in 6 countries + Wikipedia in Spanish, Portuguese | 101 | +10% | −14% | +3% | |
| Russia and Eurasia | Wikipedia in Russian, Ukrainian | 111 | +6% | +3% | +15% |
G20 members
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 95 | +51% | −24% | +18% | ||
| Australia | 95 | +57% | −4% | −35% | ||
| Brazil | Google + Wikipedia in Portuguese | 104 | −12% | −17% | +18% | |
| Canada | 80 | +35% | −22% | −38% | ||
| France | Google + Wikipedia in French | 146 | +23% | +39% | +52% | |
| Germany | Google + Wikipedia in German | 108 | +37% | +2% | +8% | |
| India | 112 | +27% | +7% | +61% | ||
| Indonesia | Google + Wikipedia in Indonesian | 77 | −15% | −20% | −32% | |
| Italy | Google + Wikipedia in Italian | 96 | +12% | −10% | −15% | |
| Japan | Google + Wikipedia in Japanese | 92 | +23% | −10% | −6% | |
| South Korea | 86 | +87% | −56% | +7% | ||
| Mexico | 93 | +18% | −6% | −17% | ||
| Russia | Wikipedia in Russian | 108 | +6% | +2% | +8% | |
| South Africa | 69 | +4% | −37% | −38% | ||
| Türkiye | Google + Wikipedia in Turkish | 101 | +7% | −17% | +10% | |
| United Kingdom | 66 | +15% | −31% | −62% | ||
| United States | Google + Wikipedia in English | 86 | +25% | −10% | −26% |
Share of attention by region
GINC Share of Attention: this trend's share of all the public attention the trends in the list draw, worldwide and in each region, week by week (a 4-week average). Each place is read from the Wikipedia languages mostly read there and Google searching in its countries; where a place's language is shared with others, as English is, Google stands alone.
| Place | Share, last 13 weeks | Rank there | A year earlier | Read from |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 0.51% | 59 of 250 | 0.57% | Wikipedia reading in all 28 languages, and Google searching worldwide |
| Asia Pacific | 0.42% | 69 of 250 | 0.41% | Wikipedia reading in the region's own languages, not English; Google searching in 15 countries, not China |
| Europe | 0.56% | 47 of 250 | 0.51% | German, French, Italian, Polish, Dutch and Swedish reading; Google searching in 10 countries, the UK among them |
| Africa | 0.20% | 91 of 250 | 0.14% | Google searching in 7 countries; Afrikaans and Swahili reading reaches too few trends to count |
| South America | 1.3% | 16 of 250 | 1.5% | Spanish and Portuguese reading, Spanish also read in Spain; Google searching in 5 countries |
| North America | 0.27% | 82 of 249 | 0.36% | Google searching in the United States, Canada and Mexico; English reading cannot be split by country |
| Oceania | 0.46% | 54 of 249 | 0.23% | Google searching in Australia and New Zealand; English reading cannot be split by country |
| United States | 0.18% | 101 of 249 | 0.24% | Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country |
| United Kingdom | 0.24% | 78 of 249 | 0.20% | Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country |
| India | 0.07% | 133 of 249 | 0.03% | Google searching; Hindi, Bengali and Tamil reading reaches too few trends to count, and English cannot be split by country |
| China | · | · | · | Wikipedia and Google are blocked in China; no open source counts reading there |
| Russia | 1.0% | 25 of 203 | 1.2% | Russian reading, which is also done across the former Soviet states; Google's figures for Russia cannot be bought |
| Japan | 0.56% | 56 of 250 | 0.59% | Japanese reading and Google searching |
| Germany | 0.49% | 55 of 250 | 0.39% | German reading and Google searching |
| France | 0.65% | 36 of 250 | 0.66% | French reading, also done in Africa and Canada, and Google searching |
| Italy | 0.72% | 31 of 250 | 0.65% | Italian reading and Google searching |
| South Korea | 0.11% | 157 of 250 | 0.14% | Korean reading and Google searching |
| Indonesia | 0.22% | 75 of 250 | 0.23% | Google searching; Indonesian reading reaches too few trends to count |
| Brazil | 0.92% | 33 of 250 | 1.2% | Portuguese reading and Google searching |
| Türkiye | 0.00% | 115 of 250 | 0.00% | Google searching; Turkish reading reaches too few trends to count |
Relation to each scenario
A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.
Related trends
Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.
| Similarity | Trend | Theme | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 · Very high | State fragility & intrastate violence | Conflict & security | 183 |
| 4 · High | Nuclear arsenal growth & proliferation | Conflict & security | 126 |
| 3 · Moderate | Corruption & state capture | State capacity & governance | 5 |
| 3 · Moderate | Illicit finance & beneficial ownership | State capacity & governance | 20 |
| 3 · Moderate | Private military & proxy forces | Conflict & security | 142 |
| 3 · Moderate | Persistent armed conflict | Conflict & security | 169 |
| 3 · Moderate | Arms control erosion | Conflict & security | 174 |
| 3 · Moderate | Terrorism & violent extremism | Conflict & security | 240 |