Sensitivity and network position
- Rank
- 38of 250
- Sensitivity
- 10.0rank 118
- Breadth
- 0of 20 scenarios High or above
- PageRank
- 58.7rank 25
- Eigenvector
- 3.8
- Betweenness
- 45.5
- Links
- 21trends at Moderate similarity or above
- Composite
- 34.7
Attention over three years
How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.
- Share of attention
- 0.20%rank 123 of 250 · a year earlier 0.26%
- Now
- 83
- Over a year
- −19%Easing
- Over three years
- +3%
- Peak
- 37715 Oct 2023
- Sources
- Bothagreement 0.93
- Coverage
- 22languages · 65 nations
Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.
By language
Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (22 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.
| Language | Share | Now | Over a year | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| English | 59% | 82 | −8% | |
| Chinese | 14% | 89 | +7% | |
| Japanese | 5% | 82 | −9% | |
| Russian | 5% | 69 | −40% | |
| German | 4% | 94 | −8% | |
| French | 3% | 83 | −19% | |
| Persian | 1% | 84 | −47% | |
| Italian | 1% | 78 | −21% | |
| Arabic | 1% | 99 | −21% | |
| Spanish | 1% | 79 | +20% | |
| Portuguese | 1% | 80 | −41% | |
| Vietnamese | 1% | 52 | −48% | |
| Korean | 1% | 53 | −50% | |
| Turkish | 1% | 72 | −30% | |
| Hebrew | 0% | 115 | +34% | |
| Dutch | 0% | 94 | −9% | |
| Ukrainian | 0% | 75 | −31% | |
| Hindi | 0% | 69 | −48% | |
| Indonesian | 0% | 115 | −11% | |
| Swedish | 0% | 87 | −29% | |
| Thai | 0% | 61 | −53% | |
| Bengali | 0% | 101 | −22% |
By country
Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.
100
36
24
22
19
18
18
15
15
12
11
11
The 12 highest of 65 nations with a reading. All countries (CSV).
By region and G20 member
Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.
Regions
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | Google in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English | 81 | −26% | −21% | −39% | |
| Europe | Google in 4 countries + Wikipedia in German, French, Italian, Dutch, Swedish | 72 | −40% | −15% | −51% | |
| China | Google in 1 country | 18 | −66% | −77% | −94% | |
| Indo-Pacific | Google in 4 countries + Wikipedia in Japanese, Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, Indonesian, Thai | 79 | −29% | −13% | −52% | |
| South Asia | Google in 2 countries + Wikipedia in Hindi, Bengali | 87 | −24% | −19% | −36% | |
| Gulf and Middle East | Wikipedia in Persian, Arabic, Turkish, Hebrew | 91 | −36% | −27% | −12% | |
| Latin America and Caribbean | Google in 1 country + Wikipedia in Spanish, Portuguese | 85 | −30% | −23% | −2% | |
| Russia and Eurasia | Wikipedia in Russian, Ukrainian | 70 | −33% | −39% | −50% |
G20 members
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 45 | −60% | −70% | −72% | ||
| Brazil | Google + Wikipedia in Portuguese | 85 | −31% | −33% | +24% | |
| Canada | 70 | −36% | −62% | −51% | ||
| China | 18 | −66% | −77% | −94% | ||
| France | Google + Wikipedia in French | 57 | −55% | −25% | −53% | |
| Germany | Google + Wikipedia in German | 81 | −31% | +8% | −46% | |
| India | Google + Wikipedia in Hindi, Bengali | 86 | −15% | −24% | −35% | |
| Indonesia | Google + Wikipedia in Indonesian | 106 | −23% | −2% | −5% | |
| Italy | Google + Wikipedia in Italian | 64 | −50% | −35% | −60% | |
| Japan | Google + Wikipedia in Japanese | 83 | −17% | +3% | −63% | |
| South Korea | Google + Wikipedia in Korean | 56 | −42% | −38% | −51% | |
| Russia | Wikipedia in Russian | 69 | −32% | −40% | −51% | |
| Türkiye | Wikipedia in Turkish | 72 | −28% | −31% | −44% | |
| United Kingdom | 74 | −15% | +1% | −60% | ||
| United States | Google + Wikipedia in English | 83 | −25% | −9% | −37% |
Share of attention by region
GINC Share of Attention: this trend's share of all the public attention the trends in the list draw, worldwide and in each region, week by week (a 4-week average). Each place is read from the Wikipedia languages mostly read there and Google searching in its countries; where a place's language is shared with others, as English is, Google stands alone.
| Place | Share, last 13 weeks | Rank there | A year earlier | Read from |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 0.20% | 123 of 250 | 0.26% | Wikipedia reading in all 28 languages, and Google searching worldwide |
| Asia Pacific | 0.28% | 104 of 250 | 0.32% | Wikipedia reading in the region's own languages, not English; Google searching in 15 countries, not China |
| Europe | 0.10% | 189 of 250 | 0.15% | German, French, Italian, Polish, Dutch and Swedish reading; Google searching in 10 countries, the UK among them |
| Africa | 0.04% | 183 of 250 | 0.06% | Google searching in 7 countries; Afrikaans and Swahili reading reaches too few trends to count |
| South America | 0.11% | 180 of 250 | 0.14% | Spanish and Portuguese reading, Spanish also read in Spain; Google searching in 5 countries |
| North America | 0.04% | 196 of 249 | 0.05% | Google searching in the United States, Canada and Mexico; English reading cannot be split by country |
| Oceania | 0.10% | 136 of 249 | 0.17% | Google searching in Australia and New Zealand; English reading cannot be split by country |
| United States | 0.06% | 176 of 249 | 0.06% | Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country |
| United Kingdom | 0.05% | 162 of 249 | 0.06% | Google searching; English reading cannot be split by country |
| India | 0.04% | 162 of 249 | 0.03% | Google searching; Hindi, Bengali and Tamil reading reaches too few trends to count, and English cannot be split by country |
| China | · | · | · | Wikipedia and Google are blocked in China; no open source counts reading there |
| Russia | 0.31% | 95 of 203 | 0.42% | Russian reading, which is also done across the former Soviet states; Google's figures for Russia cannot be bought |
| Japan | 0.44% | 77 of 250 | 0.39% | Japanese reading and Google searching |
| Germany | 0.13% | 169 of 250 | 0.18% | German reading and Google searching |
| France | 0.12% | 148 of 250 | 0.20% | French reading, also done in Africa and Canada, and Google searching |
| Italy | 0.12% | 150 of 250 | 0.20% | Italian reading and Google searching |
| South Korea | 0.18% | 119 of 250 | 0.27% | Korean reading and Google searching |
| Indonesia | 0.03% | 196 of 250 | 0.03% | Google searching; Indonesian reading reaches too few trends to count |
| Brazil | 0.19% | 121 of 250 | 0.28% | Portuguese reading and Google searching |
| Türkiye | 0.00% | 169 of 250 | 0.00% | Google searching; Turkish reading reaches too few trends to count |
Relation to each scenario
A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.
Related trends
Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.
| Similarity | Trend | Theme | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 · Very high | Sanctions circumvention networks | Trade, industry & supply chains | 140 |
| 4 · High | Foreign investment slowdown & selectivity | Trade, industry & supply chains | 23 |
| 4 · High | Export controls & economic coercion | Trade, industry & supply chains | 34 |
| 4 · High | Trade & investment fragmentation | Trade, industry & supply chains | 37 |
| 4 · High | Tariff barrier normalisation | Trade, industry & supply chains | 58 |
| 4 · High | Shifting economic weight | Trade, industry & supply chains | 78 |
| 4 · High | Port & carrier concentration | Trade, industry & supply chains | 94 |
| 4 · High | Regional trade agreement deepening | Trade, industry & supply chains | 105 |
| 3 · Moderate | Industrial policy competition | Trade, industry & supply chains | 26 |
| 3 · Moderate | Middle-power diplomatic leverage | Diplomacy & influence | 36 |
| 3 · Moderate | Economic security policy | Trade, industry & supply chains | 47 |
| 3 · Moderate | Manufacturing overcapacity | Trade, industry & supply chains | 51 |
| 3 · Moderate | Critical input supplier concentration | Trade, industry & supply chains | 74 |
| 3 · Moderate | Rare earth processing concentration | Trade, industry & supply chains | 102 |
| 3 · Moderate | Sovereign wealth & state capital | Trade, industry & supply chains | 108 |
| 3 · Moderate | Digital & services trade growth | Trade, industry & supply chains | 116 |
| 3 · Moderate | Contested maritime access | Conflict & security | 117 |
| 3 · Moderate | Africa's demographic & economic rise | Trade, industry & supply chains | 172 |
| 3 · Moderate | Lean inventories & just-in-time logistics | Trade, industry & supply chains | 184 |
| 3 · Moderate | Non-tariff compliance & traceability | Trade, industry & supply chains | 185 |
| 3 · Moderate | Trade & logistics digitalisation | Trade, industry & supply chains | 189 |