{ "version": "2.0.0", "name": "GINC 250", "intro": "The 250 slow structural forces behind the scenarios, organised by the nine domains of national capability. Scenarios are shocks; trends are what raise or lower their likelihood and shape who is exposed. Every trend is scored against every scenario, and every trend against every other. This is the second pass of the list: three AI models revised it separately, settled their differences and GINC made the final cut.", "rubric": [ { "level": 0, "label": "Not related" }, { "level": 1, "label": "Very low" }, { "level": 2, "label": "Low" }, { "level": 3, "label": "Moderate" }, { "level": 4, "label": "High" }, { "level": 5, "label": "Very high" }, { "level": 6, "label": "Critical" } ], "rubric_note": "A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.", "domains": [ { "key": "critical-technology", "label": "Critical Technology", "dimension": "Hard", "colour": "#42A5F5", "atlas_anchor": "critical_technology" }, { "key": "strategic-infrastructure", "label": "Strategic Infrastructure", "dimension": "Hard", "colour": "#1976D2", "atlas_anchor": "strategic_infrastructure" }, { "key": "national-security", "label": "National Security", "dimension": "Hard", "colour": "#0D47A1", "atlas_anchor": "national_security" }, { "key": "human-capital", "label": "Human Capital", "dimension": "Soft", "colour": "#BA68C8", "atlas_anchor": "human_capital" }, { "key": "information-influence", "label": "Information & Influence", "dimension": "Soft", "colour": "#8E24AA", "atlas_anchor": "information_influence" }, { "key": "governance-integrity", "label": "Governance & Integrity", "dimension": "Soft", "colour": "#4A148C", "atlas_anchor": "governance_integrity" }, { "key": "financial-strength", "label": "Financial Strength", "dimension": "Economic", "colour": "#FFB300", "atlas_anchor": "financial_strength" }, { "key": "production-innovation", "label": "Production & Innovation", "dimension": "Economic", "colour": "#EF6C00", "atlas_anchor": "production_innovation" }, { "key": "trade-investment", "label": "Trade & Investment", "dimension": "Economic", "colour": "#BF360C", "atlas_anchor": "trade_investment" } ], "domains_note": "Each trend is assigned to the one domain of the National Capability Framework it bears on most. The assignment was proposed by the model panel and settled in the final cut.", "themes_note": "Each trend also belongs to a theme: the cluster of the trend network it falls in. Themes are found from the links between trends, not assigned.", "trends": [ { "id": "general-purpose-ai-capability", "name": "General-purpose AI capability", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "AI systems are improving across language, reasoning and autonomous task execution, widening the range of work nations can automate and raising the value of reliable performance and domestic technical expertise.", "tags": [ "ai", "compute", "work-skills" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 2, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 6, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 5, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "ai-compute" }, { "id": "frontier-model-concentration", "name": "Frontier model concentration", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "The most capable AI models and the compute needed to train them are held by a few firms in two countries, leaving other nations dependent on those providers' choices, pricing and security.", "tags": [ "ai", "compute", "geoeconomics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 5, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "ai-compute" }, { "id": "open-weight-ai-diffusion", "name": "Open-weight AI diffusion", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Capable models released with open weights are spreading AI capability beyond frontier developers, lowering cost and entry barriers while weakening control over misuse and shifting advantage towards adaptation and deployment skills.", "tags": [ "ai", "compute", "data-governance" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 2, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 4, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "ai-compute" }, { "id": "automated-ai-research", "name": "Automated AI research", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "AI systems are doing a growing share of AI research and engineering, which could shorten development cycles and widen the lead of nations and firms that pair automated experimentation with rigorous evaluation.", "tags": [ "ai", "compute", "work-skills" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 4, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "ai-compute" }, { "id": "ai-accelerated-science", "name": "AI-accelerated science", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "AI is speeding hypothesis generation, simulation and experimental design in biology, materials and energy, favouring nations that combine models with scientific expertise, reliable data and physical research facilities.", "tags": [ "ai", "biotech", "materials" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 5, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 2 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "ai-inference-efficiency", "name": "AI inference efficiency", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Model compression, specialised hardware and better inference methods are cutting the cost of running AI, widening access for nations where energy, connectivity and computing resources are constrained.", "tags": [ "ai", "compute", "power" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "ai-compute" }, { "id": "compute-scaling-and-ai-infrastructure", "name": "Compute scaling & AI infrastructure", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "The build-out of accelerators, data centres and interconnects for training and running AI keeps expanding, concentrating capability in nations and firms able to finance, power and supply it.", "tags": [ "ai", "compute", "power" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 4, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "ai-compute" }, { "id": "ai-chips-and-accelerator-supply", "name": "AI chips & accelerator supply", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "The specialised processors that train and run AI are designed by a few firms and fabricated almost entirely in one location, making access to them a constraint on national AI capability.", "tags": [ "ai", "compute", "geoeconomics" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 4, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "ai-compute" }, { "id": "advanced-semiconductors", "name": "Advanced semiconductors", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Progress at leading-edge nodes is being joined by chiplets, custom accelerators and advanced packaging, making design and integration expertise as important to national computing capability as access to fabrication.", "tags": [ "compute", "manufacturing", "ai" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 4, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "ai-compute" }, { "id": "lithography-and-chip-tool-chokepoints", "name": "Lithography & chip-tool chokepoints", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Advanced chip fabrication depends on a few suppliers of equipment, design software and materials, giving their host nations leverage through export controls over who can produce leading-edge silicon.", "tags": [ "compute", "manufacturing", "geoeconomics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 5, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 4, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "cloud-and-edge-computing", "name": "Cloud & edge computing", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Computing is spreading across hyperscale clouds and processors placed where data is generated, changing who owns critical infrastructure and making architecture and integration skills more important to reliable national processing.", "tags": [ "compute", "connectivity", "cyber" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 1, "S08": 2, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "ai-compute" }, { "id": "digital-sovereignty-and-data-localisation", "name": "Digital sovereignty & data localisation", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Dependence on foreign providers for cloud, models, compute and standards is prompting localisation rules and investment that bring data and computing under national jurisdiction, at a cost in scale, interoperability and conflicting legal obligations.", "tags": [ "data-governance", "geoeconomics", "compute" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 1, "S09": 1, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "ai-compute" }, { "id": "post-quantum-cryptography-transition", "name": "Post-quantum cryptography transition", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Replacing the encryption that protects finance, government and infrastructure before quantum computers can break it is a decade-long migration that depends on system inventories, implementation skills and interoperability.", "tags": [ "cyber", "compute", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 6, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "ai-compute" }, { "id": "quantum-computing", "name": "Quantum computing", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Error correction and hardware engineering are moving quantum computing beyond laboratory demonstrations, making sustained national scientific and industrial capability important while commercially useful applications remain uncertain.", "tags": [ "compute", "cyber", "materials" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 5, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "ai-compute" }, { "id": "quantum-sensing-and-timing", "name": "Quantum sensing & timing", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Quantum sensors and clocks are improving measurement of time, gravity and magnetic fields, offering navigation and timing that do not rely on satellite signals exposed to jamming and spoofing.", "tags": [ "space-geo", "resilience", "defence" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "biometric-identification", "name": "Biometric identification", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Face, fingerprint, iris and voice recognition are spreading across borders, payments and public services, making accuracy, spoof resistance and recoverable credentials central to dependable national identification.", "tags": [ "cyber", "data-governance", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 5, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "earth-observation-and-geospatial-sensing", "name": "Earth observation & geospatial sensing", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Satellite imagery, positioning data and ground sensors are becoming cheaper and easier to combine, strengthening nations that can turn spatial observation into dependable intelligence for agriculture, logistics, insurance and defence.", "tags": [ "space-geo", "information", "data-governance" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 3, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 4, "S15": 0, "S16": 3, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "information-trust" }, { "id": "commercial-launch-and-space-access", "name": "Commercial launch & space access", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Reusable launch and standardised spacecraft production are lowering the cost of reaching orbit, widening commercial space services and raising the value of national launch, manufacturing and in-orbit operating capability.", "tags": [ "space-geo", "manufacturing", "logistics" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "orbital-debris-and-congestion", "name": "Orbital debris & congestion", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Growing satellite populations and persistent debris are raising collision risk in low orbit, making tracking, manoeuvring and disposal capability more important to the space services on which nations depend.", "tags": [ "space-geo", "resilience" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "general-purpose-and-humanoid-robotics", "name": "General-purpose & humanoid robotics", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Advances in perception, manipulation and learning are making robots adaptable across more physical tasks, extending automation into manufacturing, logistics and care and raising the value of embodied AI expertise.", "tags": [ "robotics", "ai", "work-skills" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "ai-compute" }, { "id": "advanced-materials", "name": "Advanced materials", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Better modelling and fabrication are producing composites, alloys and other materials with tailored properties, widening national options in energy, electronics and defence while making supply of their inputs a point of leverage.", "tags": [ "materials", "manufacturing", "geoeconomics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "advanced-nuclear-fission", "name": "Advanced nuclear fission", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Small modular reactors and other new fission designs are moving towards deployment as firm low-carbon power, making fuel supply, licensing expertise and engineering depth the determinants of which nations can build them.", "tags": [ "clean-energy", "power", "manufacturing" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 5, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "fusion-energy", "name": "Fusion energy", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Fusion is moving from physics experiments to integrated engineering with private capital and AI-aided design, building national expertise in magnets, materials and control systems although commercial power within the decade is not assured.", "tags": [ "clean-energy", "power", "materials" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "enhanced-geothermal", "name": "Enhanced geothermal", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Drilling and reservoir techniques adapted from shale are widening access to geothermal heat, giving more nations an option for firm clean power where geology and economics allow.", "tags": [ "clean-energy", "power" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "synthetic-biology-and-biomanufacturing", "name": "Synthetic biology & biomanufacturing", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Falling costs of reading, writing and engineering biology are expanding the design of organisms to make medicines, materials, food and fuels, raising the importance of biological data, facilities and biosecurity.", "tags": [ "biotech", "manufacturing", "food-systems" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 4, "S18": 0, "S19": 3, "S20": 4 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "gene-editing-and-cell-therapies", "name": "Gene editing & cell therapies", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "More precise genome editing and cell engineering are moving one-time treatments from rare diseases towards common ones, making specialist manufacturing, clinical expertise and delivery capacity central to national biomedical capability.", "tags": [ "biotech", "health-systems", "disease" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "adaptable-vaccine-platforms", "name": "Adaptable vaccine platforms", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Modular vaccine platforms such as mRNA are shortening design and adaptation times and extending into cancer treatment, favouring nations that link pathogen surveillance, clinical testing and dependable production.", "tags": [ "biotech", "disease", "health-systems" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 5, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 6 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "biomarker-guided-precision-medicine", "name": "Biomarker-guided precision medicine", "domain": "critical-technology", "description": "Genomic and molecular information increasingly guides diagnosis and treatment choice, led by cancer care, making laboratory capability and representative clinical data more important to national biomedical performance.", "tags": [ "biotech", "health-systems", "digital-health" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 5, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "data-centre-power-and-water-demand", "name": "Data-centre power & water demand", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Electricity, cooling and water demand from AI and cloud data centres is rising sharply and concentrating in particular places, straining local grids and shaping where digital capacity and industry can locate.", "tags": [ "power", "compute", "water" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "distributed-power", "name": "Distributed power", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Rooftop solar, local storage and microgrids are spreading, shifting control away from central utilities and adding resilience when grids fail while complicating network coordination and cost recovery.", "tags": [ "power", "clean-energy", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 1, "S04": 4, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "electric-transport-and-charging-networks", "name": "Electric transport & charging networks", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Cars, fleets and two-wheelers are moving to electric power, which cuts oil use, adds load to local grids and makes reliable charging networks a requirement of national transport.", "tags": [ "mobility", "power", "clean-energy" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "electrification-of-heat-and-industry", "name": "Electrification of heat & industry", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Heating, cooling and industrial processes are moving from direct fuel use to electricity, which raises dependence on grid adequacy, changes seasonal demand and widens the consequences of a power failure.", "tags": [ "power", "clean-energy", "manufacturing" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "grid-expansion-and-demand-flexibility", "name": "Grid expansion & demand flexibility", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Electrification and new generation locations require more transmission, distribution and interconnection, while smart metering and responsive tariffs shift consumption, making network build-out and flexibility central constraints on energy and industrial development.", "tags": [ "power", "clean-energy", "connectivity" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 4, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 5, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "renewable-generation-expansion", "name": "Renewable generation expansion", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Wind and solar are taking larger shares of electricity supply, reducing exposure to imported fuels while their variability raises the importance of storage, land and network capacity.", "tags": [ "clean-energy", "power", "carbon" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 5, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "firm-and-black-start-capacity", "name": "Firm & black-start capacity", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Dispatchable plant and restart capability are retiring faster than firm replacements arrive, making system balancing and restoration harder as power systems depend more on variable renewables and imports.", "tags": [ "power", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 5, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "fossil-fuel-supply-and-refining", "name": "Fossil fuel supply & refining", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Energy security concerns and rising power demand are sustaining investment in oil, gas and coal, while uneven refining, storage and distribution capacity determines how long fuel reaches users when imports stop.", "tags": [ "fossil", "logistics", "resilience", "power" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 5, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 2, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "reliable-energy-access-gaps", "name": "Reliable energy access gaps", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Electricity connections are expanding through grid, mini-grid and off-grid supply, yet gaps in reliability and affordability persist and limit enterprise formation, public service delivery and stability in poorer nations.", "tags": [ "power", "inequality", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "strategic-stockpiles-and-reserves", "name": "Strategic stockpiles & reserves", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Longer disruption planning horizons are raising the value of public reserves of fuel, grain, medicines and critical inputs, whose size, quality, rotation and location decide whether a shock becomes a shortage.", "tags": [ "resilience", "logistics", "food-systems" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 4, "S02": 0, "S03": 5, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 4, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 2 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "infrastructure-ageing-and-maintenance-backlog", "name": "Infrastructure ageing & maintenance backlog", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Grids, pipes, bridges and water systems are operating beyond design life with deferred maintenance, and service reliability falls where inspection, repair skills and renewal investment fail to keep pace.", "tags": [ "resilience", "cities", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 4, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 5, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "climate-change-and-physical-risk", "name": "Climate change & physical risk", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Warming is making floods, heat, drought, fire and storms more frequent and severe, with possible abrupt Earth system shifts, damaging assets and changing the operating conditions of national infrastructure.", "tags": [ "climate", "resilience", "nature" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 6, "S07": 5, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "resilient-construction-and-asset-adaptation", "name": "Resilient construction & asset adaptation", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Changing hazards are raising the need for retrofits, protective design and enforced building codes, and how well assets withstand floods, heat, storms and earthquakes sets future disaster losses and service continuity.", "tags": [ "resilience", "climate", "cities", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 6, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "urban-cooling-infrastructure", "name": "Urban cooling infrastructure", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Rising temperatures and urban density are increasing the need for shade, district cooling and heat refuges, making thermal protection an essential public service in cities rather than a private purchase.", "tags": [ "cities", "climate", "resilience" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "early-warning-coverage", "name": "Early-warning coverage", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Observation and communication technologies are extending hazard forecasting and alerts, but losses are avoided only where warnings reach people in time and still work when power and networks fail.", "tags": [ "resilience", "information", "climate" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 4, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "urban-population-concentration", "name": "Urban population concentration", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "People and economic activity continue to concentrate in cities, straining housing, water, transport and public services and making urban service capacity a stronger determinant of national productivity and exposure.", "tags": [ "cities", "demography", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 1, "S06": 2, "S07": 4, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "rail-and-mass-transit-expansion", "name": "Rail & mass transit expansion", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Urban density and transport decarbonisation are driving investment in intercity rail and urban mass transit, and network reach and integration increasingly determine congestion, freight capacity and access to jobs.", "tags": [ "mobility", "cities", "carbon" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "freshwater-stress-and-transboundary-water", "name": "Freshwater stress & transboundary water", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Overuse and changing rainfall are tightening freshwater supply in many regions, constraining agriculture and industry and increasing the use of shared rivers and aquifers as instruments of pressure between states.", "tags": [ "water", "climate", "conflict" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 5, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 5, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "food-water-nature" }, { "id": "water-treatment-and-desalination", "name": "Water treatment & desalination", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Scarcity and contamination are increasing reliance on reuse, desalination, advanced treatment and leakage reduction, making constant power, investment and operating expertise conditions of dependable national water supply.", "tags": [ "water", "power", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "dams-reservoirs-and-flood-defence", "name": "Dams, reservoirs & flood defence", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Ageing dams, sediment build-up and changing rainfall are reducing effective water storage and flood protection, so the condition and operation of these structures increasingly decide water security and disaster risk.", "tags": [ "water", "resilience", "climate" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 3, "S07": 5, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "biodiversity-and-ecosystem-loss", "name": "Biodiversity & ecosystem loss", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Loss of forests, wetlands, fisheries and biological diversity is weakening pollination, water regulation and natural flood protection, reducing the reliability of the natural resources that national economies draw on.", "tags": [ "nature", "food-systems", "water" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "food-water-nature" }, { "id": "agricultural-soil-degradation", "name": "Agricultural soil degradation", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Erosion, salinisation and declining soil condition are reducing the quality of productive land, raising the inputs and effort needed to sustain national food supply and rural livelihoods.", "tags": [ "food-systems", "nature" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 4, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 5, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "food-water-nature" }, { "id": "food-storage-and-cold-chains", "name": "Food storage & cold chains", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Urban demand and longer supply chains are increasing the need for storage and refrigeration, making cold chain coverage important to national food availability, nutritional quality and the reduction of losses.", "tags": [ "food-systems", "logistics" ], "support": 1, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 4, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 4, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 3 }, "paradigm": "food-water-nature" }, { "id": "next-generation-mobile-networks", "name": "Next-generation mobile networks", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Fifth-generation networks are extending into industry and infrastructure and need denser equipment and stronger backhaul, making coverage quality, deployment cost and vendor choice matters of national access and security.", "tags": [ "connectivity", "cyber", "geoeconomics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 1, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "telecom-network-resilience", "name": "Telecom network resilience", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Growing dependence on digital services is raising the need for backup power, diverse routes and repair capacity in fixed and mobile networks, which decide whether communication survives disaster or attack.", "tags": [ "connectivity", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 5, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 4, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "subsea-cable-and-pipeline-dependence", "name": "Subsea cable & pipeline dependence", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "International connectivity and energy exchange rely on a growing network of seabed cables and pipelines exposed to sabotage and accident, with route diversity and scarce repair capacity setting national resilience.", "tags": [ "connectivity", "resilience", "conflict" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 6, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 4, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "connected-infrastructure-operation", "name": "Connected infrastructure operation", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Sensors and networked controls are spreading through buildings, utilities and industry, improving operational visibility and remote control while increasing dependence on maintained software, interoperable systems and secure connectivity.", "tags": [ "connectivity", "cyber", "data-governance" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 4, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 3, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "satellite-positioning-and-timing-dependence", "name": "Satellite positioning & timing dependence", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Transport, telecoms, finance and power rely increasingly on satellite positioning and timing signals that jamming, spoofing or a severe solar storm can disrupt, making alternative references necessary for continuity.", "tags": [ "space-geo", "resilience", "connectivity" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 5, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "satellite-connectivity-expansion", "name": "Satellite connectivity expansion", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "description": "Large low-orbit constellations are extending communications coverage beyond terrestrial networks, widening national connectivity options while creating dependence on a few external operators and on contested orbital infrastructure.", "tags": [ "space-geo", "connectivity", "networks" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 4, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "great-power-competition", "name": "Great-power competition", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Rivalry between the United States and China, and between Russia and the West, is intensifying across security, technology and trade, making national security depend on deterrence, alignment choices and managing prolonged confrontation.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "defence", "conflict" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 6, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 3, "S10": 0, "S11": 1, "S12": 2, "S13": 6, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "alliance-realignment-and-burden-shifting", "name": "Alliance realignment & burden-shifting", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Security guarantees are becoming more conditional as allies are pressed to pay and do more and new groupings form, making national defence planning more sensitive to the limits of external protection.", "tags": [ "defence", "politics", "geoeconomics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 3, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "rearmament-and-defence-spending", "name": "Rearmament & defence spending", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Military budgets and stockpile rebuilding are rising across NATO, Asia and the Gulf, competing with other public spending and making capability choices and spending efficiency more important to national defence.", "tags": [ "defence", "debt-finance" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 1, "S03": 4, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "defence-industrial-base-and-munitions", "name": "Defence industrial base & munitions", "domain": "national-security", "description": "High wartime consumption rates, low stockpiles and concentrated suppliers are exposing limits in weapons and ammunition production, making industrial surge capacity and component availability central to sustained national defence.", "tags": [ "defence", "manufacturing", "logistics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 5, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "conscription-and-reserve-mobilisation", "name": "Conscription & reserve mobilisation", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Recruitment shortfalls and larger readiness requirements are bringing back national service and bigger reserves, making mobilisation capacity depend on training systems, demographic supply and public acceptance of service obligations.", "tags": [ "defence", "work-skills", "demography" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 4, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "whole-of-society-resilience", "name": "Whole-of-society resilience", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Renewed territorial defence concerns and planning for longer disruptions are expanding civil preparedness, making household self-sufficiency, trained communities, exercises and continuity arrangements part of national security capacity.", "tags": [ "resilience", "defence" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 4, "S05": 1, "S06": 2, "S07": 4, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 2 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "military-logistics-complexity", "name": "Military logistics complexity", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Dispersed operations and more sophisticated equipment are raising military sustainment demands, making repair networks, transport capacity and standardised supplies stronger determinants of how long a national force can fight.", "tags": [ "defence", "logistics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 5, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "ai-supported-military-decisions", "name": "AI-supported military decisions", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Armed forces are integrating AI into intelligence, targeting and command processes, increasing decision speed while making national military effectiveness depend on validated systems, trusted data and accountable human control.", "tags": [ "ai", "defence" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 4, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "drone-and-autonomous-warfare", "name": "Drone & autonomous warfare", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Cheap uncrewed and autonomous systems are spreading across armed forces and non-state groups, changing the economics of observation and attack and rewarding nations that can produce at scale, counter and adapt quickly.", "tags": [ "defence", "robotics", "conflict" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 5, "S04": 4, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 4, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "long-range-strike-proliferation", "name": "Long-range strike proliferation", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Cheaper precision missiles and long-range drones are reaching more states and armed groups, placing ports, energy sites and cities within range and raising the cost of national air and missile defence.", "tags": [ "defence", "conflict" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 5, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "nuclear-arsenal-growth-and-proliferation", "name": "Nuclear arsenal growth & proliferation", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Nuclear powers are renewing and in some cases enlarging arsenals while weaker security guarantees lead more states to seek nuclear and other unconventional weapons, raising national requirements for deterrence, strategic warning and non-proliferation enforcement.", "tags": [ "defence", "conflict", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "arms-control-erosion", "name": "Arms control erosion", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Treaties and verification regimes for nuclear, conventional and emerging weapons are lapsing without replacement, reducing predictability and raising national requirements for monitoring, deterrence and crisis management.", "tags": [ "defence", "institutions", "conflict" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "militarisation-of-space", "name": "Militarisation of space", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Military dependence on satellites is growing alongside anti-satellite weapons and other means to disrupt them, making protected communications, orbital awareness and rapid replacement capacity central to national defence effectiveness.", "tags": [ "space-geo", "defence", "conflict" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "electromagnetic-spectrum-contest", "name": "Electromagnetic spectrum contest", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Growing military and civil dependence on wireless systems is intensifying competition over detection, jamming and deception, making spectrum awareness and resilient communications essential to effective national military operations.", "tags": [ "defence", "connectivity", "conflict" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 4, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "state-cyber-intrusion-and-prepositioning", "name": "State cyber intrusion & prepositioning", "domain": "national-security", "description": "States are seeking persistent, concealed access to rivals' government and infrastructure networks before any confrontation, increasingly with AI assistance, making national defence depend on detecting intrusions and limiting their operational effect.", "tags": [ "cyber", "defence", "conflict" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 4, "S04": 6, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "ransomware-and-cyber-extortion", "name": "Ransomware & cyber extortion", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Criminal groups are professionalising intrusion and extortion against hospitals, utilities and governments, often tolerated by host states, exposing nations to repeated disruption where enforcement and recovery capacity lag.", "tags": [ "cyber", "resilience", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "critical-infrastructure-protection", "name": "Critical infrastructure protection", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Energy, water, transport and telecoms systems are becoming more digitally controlled and distributed, increasing their exposure to attack and making coordinated physical defence, access control and threat assessment a national security task.", "tags": [ "defence", "cyber", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 4, "S04": 5, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "espionage-and-insider-threat", "name": "Espionage & insider threat", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Strategic competition is increasing rival states' theft of secrets and technology through insiders as well as networks, making national advantage depend on counter-intelligence and proportionate protection of research and industry.", "tags": [ "defence", "cyber", "information" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 1, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "hybrid-and-grey-zone-coercion", "name": "Hybrid & grey-zone coercion", "domain": "national-security", "description": "States are making wider use of deniable sabotage, drone incursions, jamming and instrumentalised migration below the threshold of war, requiring national security systems to detect, attribute and respond across institutional boundaries.", "tags": [ "conflict", "defence", "cyber" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 1, "S04": 6, "S05": 1, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "private-military-and-proxy-forces", "name": "Private military & proxy forces", "domain": "national-security", "description": "States are making greater use of contractors, militias and proxies to extend influence deniably and off budget, complicating attribution and accountability and requiring nations to understand fragmented command structures and loyalties.", "tags": [ "conflict", "defence" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 4, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "contested-maritime-access", "name": "Contested maritime access", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Coercive activity is growing in disputed waters and narrow straits that carry much seaborne trade, energy and food, making national access to shipping depend on surveillance, escorts, insurers and credible sea control.", "tags": [ "defence", "trade", "logistics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 6, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 5, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "undersea-military-competition", "name": "Undersea military competition", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Submarines, seabed sensors and uncrewed underwater vessels are expanding undersea competition, raising national requirements to monitor submerged activity, counter mines and protect strategically important maritime infrastructure.", "tags": [ "defence", "robotics", "conflict" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 4, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "arctic-and-polar-competition", "name": "Arctic & polar competition", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Retreating ice is opening polar sea routes and resources and prompting military positioning around them, expanding national requirements for surveillance, presence and operations in difficult environments.", "tags": [ "climate", "defence", "geoeconomics" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "persistent-armed-conflict", "name": "Persistent armed conflict", "domain": "national-security", "description": "State-based conflicts are more numerous than at any time since 1945 and are sustained by external support and weak settlements, exposing nations to prolonged insecurity, displacement and recurrent demands on defence resources.", "tags": [ "conflict", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 4, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 5, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "state-fragility-and-intrastate-violence", "name": "State fragility & intrastate violence", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Coups, insurgency and competing armed organisations are fragmenting territorial control in weak states, reducing their ability to protect populations, collect revenue and sustain services and creating space for crime and extremism.", "tags": [ "conflict", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 5, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 3, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "terrorism-and-violent-extremism", "name": "Terrorism & violent extremism", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Extremist movements are sustaining recruitment through dispersed online networks and local grievances, keeping the threat of attack by groups and radicalised individuals persistent and making prevention depend on national intelligence and local knowledge.", "tags": [ "conflict", "information" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 1, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "organised-crime-and-illicit-economies", "name": "Organised crime & illicit economies", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Transnational criminal networks are expanding trafficking, fraud and illicit markets across borders and penetrating institutions, weakening national control and financing violence where enforcement and legitimate economic alternatives fail to keep pace.", "tags": [ "conflict", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 1, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "conflict-security" }, { "id": "biosecurity-and-dual-use-biology", "name": "Biosecurity & dual-use biology", "domain": "national-security", "description": "Biological design and synthesis tools are becoming cheap and widely held, increasing the risk of accident or deliberate release and the national need for screening, laboratory oversight and detection.", "tags": [ "biotech", "defence", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 4 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "population-ageing", "name": "Population ageing", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Older people are forming a larger share of many populations, reducing the working-age labour supply and raising the importance of healthy later life, accessible services and care capacity.", "tags": [ "demography", "longevity", "work-skills" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 1, "S08": 1, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 4, "S20": 2 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "persistently-low-fertility", "name": "Persistently low fertility", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Birth rates remain below replacement in a growing number of societies, reducing future workforce entrants and making national population size and age structure more dependent on migration.", "tags": [ "demography", "work-skills" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 1, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "youth-population-expansion", "name": "Youth population expansion", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Large young cohorts continue to grow in parts of Africa and Asia, increasing potential labour supply while raising national requirements for schooling, health services and job creation.", "tags": [ "demography", "work-skills", "inequality" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 1, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "youth-employment-exclusion", "name": "Youth employment exclusion", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Many economies cannot absorb young entrants into productive work, weakening national returns on education and increasing the risk of prolonged inactivity, emigration and unrest.", "tags": [ "work-skills", "demography", "inequality" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 2, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 4, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "ai-and-knowledge-work-automation", "name": "AI & knowledge-work automation", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "AI systems are carrying out more multi-step professional tasks with little supervision, changing occupational demand and making national workforce capability depend on complementary skills rather than qualifications alone.", "tags": [ "ai", "work-skills", "inequality" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 6, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 5, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "informal-employment-persistence", "name": "Informal employment persistence", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Large shares of work remain outside contracts, tax and social insurance, limiting skill development, state revenue and the protection of workers as economic and technological conditions change.", "tags": [ "work-skills", "inequality", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 1, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 2, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "technical-and-occupational-skill-shortages", "name": "Technical & occupational skill shortages", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Technological change and ageing workforces are creating persistent shortages in technical, trade and professional occupations, limiting national delivery capacity where vocational training and labour mobility respond slowly.", "tags": [ "work-skills", "demography" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 3, "S09": 3, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 2, "S17": 3, "S18": 2, "S19": 2, "S20": 2 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "graduate-skill-mismatch", "name": "Graduate skill mismatch", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Degree attainment is growing faster than suitable professional openings in some economies, weakening national returns on tertiary education where curricula and employer requirements diverge.", "tags": [ "work-skills", "inequality" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "foundational-learning-deficits", "name": "Foundational learning deficits", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Many pupils still leave school without secure literacy and numeracy, lowering national productivity and limiting how far later training can meet more complex skill requirements.", "tags": [ "work-skills", "inequality" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "lifelong-learning-and-digital-reskilling", "name": "Lifelong learning & digital reskilling", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Shorter skill lifecycles and the spread of AI tools are increasing the need for learning throughout working life, making accessible retraining, digital competence and credible assessment central to national workforce adaptability.", "tags": [ "work-skills", "ai" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 4, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 1, "S17": 2, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "skilled-and-research-talent-migration", "name": "Skilled & research talent migration", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Highly skilled workers and researchers increasingly cluster in a few attractive labour markets and research centres, redistributing national expertise and weakening source countries that cannot replace or draw back talent.", "tags": [ "work-skills", "demography", "geoeconomics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 1, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 4, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "migrant-integration-demands", "name": "Migrant integration demands", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "More varied migration flows are raising the importance of language acquisition and recognition of qualifications, determining how quickly receiving nations turn population inflows into usable capability.", "tags": [ "demography", "work-skills", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "gender-participation-divergence", "name": "Gender participation divergence", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Women's access to employment and advancement is improving unevenly and reversing in some places, creating national differences in usable talent, household resilience and returns on education.", "tags": [ "work-skills", "inequality" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 3, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "entrenched-opportunity-inequality", "name": "Entrenched opportunity inequality", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Unequal access to wealth, education and networks is reproducing capability gaps across generations, limiting national talent development and social mobility even where average incomes and qualifications rise.", "tags": [ "inequality", "work-skills" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 1, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 2, "S06": 2, "S07": 1, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 1, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 3, "S17": 2, "S18": 3, "S19": 3, "S20": 2 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "care-labour-demand-growth", "name": "Care labour demand growth", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Ageing and changing household structures are increasing paid and unpaid care needs, constraining national labour force participation where affordable services and care workers remain scarce.", "tags": [ "work-skills", "demography", "inequality" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 3, "S20": 3 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "reproductive-maternal-and-child-health", "name": "Reproductive, maternal & child health", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Uneven access to reproductive, maternal and early childhood care is sustaining avoidable mortality and developmental harm, reducing national human potential and adding to later demands on services.", "tags": [ "health-systems", "demography", "inequality" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 1, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 2 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "persistent-nutritional-deprivation", "name": "Persistent nutritional deprivation", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies remain concentrated among vulnerable groups, impairing early childhood development, cognitive ability and physical capacity even where total food supply is sufficient.", "tags": [ "food-systems", "inequality", "disease" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 5, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 4, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "food-water-nature" }, { "id": "sanitation-and-hygiene-access-gaps", "name": "Sanitation & hygiene access gaps", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Access to safe sanitation and hygiene is improving unevenly, leaving persistent disease exposure that limits national health, school attendance and the effectiveness of clinical services.", "tags": [ "water", "disease", "inequality" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 1, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 2 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "chronic-disease-and-obesity-burden", "name": "Chronic disease & obesity burden", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Longer lives, changing diets and rising obesity are increasing long-term conditions such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer, reducing labour participation and raising lasting demand for prevention, treatment and new metabolic medicines.", "tags": [ "disease", "health-systems", "longevity" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 1, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 1, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 6, "S20": 3 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "mental-health-demand-growth", "name": "Mental health demand growth", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Rising prevalence and recognition of mental health conditions are increasing demand for services, reducing educational attainment and employment where prevention and effective treatment remain insufficient.", "tags": [ "health-systems", "disease", "work-skills" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 2, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "antimicrobial-resistance", "name": "Antimicrobial resistance", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Resistance is reducing the effectiveness of established antimicrobial medicines, increasing illness burdens and the risk of routine surgery while making surveillance, stewardship and dependable access to new treatments more important.", "tags": [ "disease", "health-systems", "biotech" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 2 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "pathogen-emergence-pressure", "name": "Pathogen emergence pressure", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Land use change, 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5, "S11": 2, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 1, "S20": 4 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "health-system-demand-imbalance", "name": "Health system demand imbalance", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Medical demand is growing faster than service capacity in many systems, making funding, organisation, prevention and dependable primary care increasingly important to national population health.", "tags": [ "health-systems", "demography" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 1, "S03": 0, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 5, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 3, "S20": 4 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "digital-and-ai-supported-care", "name": "Digital & AI-supported care", "domain": "human-capital", "description": "Remote consultation, monitoring and AI-supported diagnosis are spreading through care systems, 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"S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 2, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 1, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "information-trust" }, { "id": "declining-institutional-trust", "name": "Declining institutional trust", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Public confidence in government, science, media and elections is falling and becoming more uneven across social groups, reducing the ability of nations to secure cooperation and compliance through shared authorities.", "tags": [ "information", "institutions", "politics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 1, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 5, "S06": 1, "S07": 2, "S08": 2, "S09": 2, "S10": 3, "S11": 1, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 2, "S20": 3 }, "paradigm": "information-trust" }, { "id": "conspiracy-movements-and-science-denial", "name": "Conspiracy movements & science denial", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Networked movements are sustaining organised rejection of medicine, science and official accounts, reducing the ability of nations to build consent for health measures and other technically complex public decisions.", "tags": [ "information", "politics", "health-systems" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 4, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 2, "S20": 2 }, "paradigm": "information-trust" }, { "id": "religious-and-identity-nationalism", "name": "Religious & identity nationalism", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Faith, ethnicity and nation are increasingly used to organise political belonging at home and as an instrument of influence abroad, deepening polarisation and strengthening the appeal of external actors claiming shared affiliation.", "tags": [ "politics", "information", "demography" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 1, "S04": 0, "S05": 4, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "information-trust" }, { "id": "public-communication-in-crisis", "name": "Public communication in crisis", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Audiences are dividing across separate platforms and communities, so the ability of authorities to reach the public and be believed in an emergency depends increasingly on many trusted messengers and resilient channels.", "tags": [ "information", "resilience", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 1, "S03": 1, "S04": 4, "S05": 4, "S06": 2, "S07": 4, "S08": 1, "S09": 1, "S10": 4, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 4 }, "paradigm": "information-trust" }, { "id": "open-source-intelligence-and-transparency", "name": "Open-source intelligence & transparency", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Commercial imagery, tracking data and online investigation are making concealment harder for states and firms, reducing the advantage of secrecy and raising the value of credible explanations for observable activity.", "tags": [ "information", "space-geo", "data-governance" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 4, "S05": 2, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 2, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "information-trust" }, { "id": "digital-language-representation-gaps", "name": "Digital language representation gaps", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Uneven coverage of languages in digital services and AI models is deciding whose knowledge stays accessible, affecting the cultural visibility of nations and the reach of their public information.", "tags": [ "ai", "information", "inequality" ], "support": 1, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 4, "S19": 0, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "information-trust" }, { "id": "soft-power-and-cultural-influence", "name": "Soft power & cultural influence", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "States are investing more in attraction through media, culture, education and brands, making national influence and market access depend more on sustained credibility as the use of coercion becomes costlier.", "tags": [ "information", "geoeconomics", "politics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "diplomacy-influence" }, { "id": "international-student-flows", "name": "International student flows", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Study destinations are diversifying as visas, costs and geopolitics change, redistributing the tuition revenue, talent and personal networks through which nations build long-term familiarity and influence.", "tags": [ "work-skills", "mobility", "geoeconomics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 1, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "diplomacy-influence" }, { "id": "research-security-and-science-decoupling", "name": "Research security & science decoupling", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Security restrictions and geopolitical mistrust are limiting research collaboration, student exchange and data sharing between rival blocs, slowing the diffusion of knowledge and narrowing national access to international science.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "institutions", "work-skills" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 5, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 4, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "diplomacy-influence" }, { "id": "diaspora-politics-and-transnational-repression", "name": "Diaspora politics & transnational repression", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Connected diaspora communities are becoming organised actors in the politics of both origin and host nations, widening channels of influence while exposing critics abroad to intimidation by origin states.", "tags": [ "politics", "demography", "information" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 1, "S04": 0, "S05": 3, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "information-trust" }, { "id": "middle-power-diplomatic-leverage", "name": "Middle-power diplomatic leverage", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "India, the Gulf states, Türkiye, Brazil, Indonesia and others are diversifying their partnerships across the great powers rather than aligning with one, gaining negotiating weight over rules, access and investment.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "politics", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 1, "S12": 3, "S13": 3, "S14": 4, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "diplomacy-influence" }, { "id": "global-south-coalitions", "name": "Global South coalitions", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "BRICS enlargement and other groupings are giving developing nations more collective weight on finance, trade and climate, although their bargaining strength depends on managing divergent interests among members.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "institutions", "politics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 1, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 4, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "diplomacy-influence" }, { "id": "weakening-multilateral-institutions", "name": "Weakening multilateral institutions", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "The authority and funding of the UN system, the WTO and the international financial institutions are declining, moving influence to smaller ad hoc groupings and requiring nations to negotiate across competing forums.", "tags": [ "institutions", "geoeconomics", "politics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 1, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 3, "S12": 2, "S13": 1, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 2 }, "paradigm": "diplomacy-influence" }, { "id": "credibility-of-external-commitments", "name": "Credibility of external commitments", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Greater domestic contestation of treaties, alliances and aid pledges is making partners less certain that commitments will outlast a change of government, raising the diplomatic cost of promises that lack durable political support.", "tags": [ "politics", "geoeconomics", "institutions" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 1, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 2, "S12": 3, "S13": 4, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "diplomacy-influence" }, { "id": "diplomatic-capacity-under-strain", "name": "Diplomatic capacity under strain", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "More crises, specialised negotiations and overlapping forums are stretching foreign services while budgets shrink, limiting influence for nations that lack expertise, representation and continuity in international engagement.", "tags": [ "institutions", "politics", "geoeconomics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 1, "S03": 3, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 1, "S10": 1, "S11": 3, "S12": 3, "S13": 3, "S14": 4, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 1, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 3 }, "paradigm": "diplomacy-influence" }, { "id": "technical-standards-competition", "name": "Technical standards competition", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "Rivalry over who writes the standards for telecoms, AI, energy and payments is intensifying, giving nations with sustained engineering and negotiating capacity influence over the systems that others must adopt.", "tags": [ "institutions", "geoeconomics", "connectivity" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 4, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 1, "S09": 4, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 4, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "diplomacy-influence" }, { "id": "development-finance-as-influence", "name": "Development finance as influence", "domain": "information-influence", "description": "More providers are using loans, infrastructure and aid to win alignment, from the Belt and Road to Western and Gulf counter-offers, making influence depend on delivery quality and recipients' financing alternatives.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "geoeconomics", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 1, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 3, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "diplomacy-influence" }, { "id": "state-capacity-and-delivery", "name": "State capacity & delivery", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Rising technical and coordination demands are widening differences between states in their ability to plan, decide and deliver, which determines how well policy is carried out and how each shock is absorbed.", "tags": [ "institutions", "resilience", "politics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 4, "S03": 3, "S04": 4, "S05": 5, "S06": 3, "S07": 4, "S08": 2, "S09": 3, "S10": 4, "S11": 3, "S12": 3, "S13": 2, "S14": 4, "S15": 2, "S16": 3, "S17": 2, "S18": 4, "S19": 3, "S20": 3 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "civil-service-capability-and-pay", "name": "Civil service capability & pay", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Public pay, career structures and morale are losing ground to private competition for technical and specialist staff, limiting the state's ability to recruit and retain the people needed to design and implement policy.", "tags": [ "institutions", "work-skills" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 2, "S03": 1, "S04": 2, "S05": 3, "S06": 1, "S07": 2, "S08": 2, "S09": 2, "S10": 2, "S11": 2, "S12": 1, "S13": 1, "S14": 1, "S15": 1, "S16": 1, "S17": 1, "S18": 4, "S19": 2, "S20": 2 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "public-sector-ai-adoption", "name": "Public-sector AI adoption", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Governments are building AI into casework, services and decisions, which raises administrative capacity where procurement, staff competence and review of automated decisions keep pace and weakens legitimacy where they do not.", "tags": [ "ai", "institutions", "data-governance" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 1, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "digital-public-infrastructure", "name": "Digital public infrastructure", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Public services and emergency payments increasingly run on shared digital identity, payment and data-exchange systems, extending administrative reach while creating risks of exclusion, fraud, surveillance and dependence on a few systems.", "tags": [ "data-governance", "institutions", "digital-finance" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 3, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 6, "S19": 0, "S20": 2 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "public-procurement-capability", "name": "Public procurement capability", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Government purchasing of technology, specialist services and emergency supplies is becoming more complex, raising delivery and integrity risks where buyers lack market knowledge, open processes and contract management skill.", "tags": [ "institutions", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 1, "S03": 1, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 3, "S11": 1, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 4, "S19": 1, "S20": 3 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "outsourcing-and-public-private-delivery", "name": "Outsourcing & public-private delivery", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Public services and infrastructure increasingly depend on private contractors, making continuity in a crisis rest on contractor viability, enforceable obligations and enough retained expertise inside government to manage or replace suppliers.", "tags": [ "institutions", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 3, "S10": 1, "S11": 1, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 1, "S18": 2, "S19": 1, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "local-and-city-government-capacity", "name": "Local & city government capacity", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Urban growth and devolved responsibilities are placing more services and the first response to shocks on municipal and regional authorities, whose finance, staffing and coordination with central government often fall short.", "tags": [ "cities", "institutions", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 1, "S03": 1, "S04": 2, "S05": 2, "S06": 2, "S07": 4, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 1, "S20": 2 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "official-statistics-and-data-capacity", "name": "Official statistics & data capacity", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Changing economies, falling survey response and political pressure are straining national statistics, weakening budgets, crisis response and creditor confidence where the coverage, timeliness and independence of official data do not keep pace.", "tags": [ "data-governance", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 3, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 1, "S06": 1, "S07": 1, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 3, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 1, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "fiscal-rules-and-budget-credibility", "name": "Fiscal rules & budget credibility", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Higher debt and financing costs are increasing scrutiny of budget plans, making borrowing terms and the scope for crisis response depend on realistic forecasts, transparent accounts and independent fiscal institutions.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "institutions", "politics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 5, "S03": 1, "S04": 1, "S05": 2, "S06": 1, "S07": 2, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 4, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 1, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "central-bank-independence-under-pressure", "name": "Central bank independence under pressure", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "High public debt, inflation and distributional tension are increasing political pressure on monetary authorities, making price stability and the credibility of public finance depend on legal safeguards and clearly assigned mandates.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "institutions", "politics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 4, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 1, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 1, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "corruption-and-state-capture", "name": "Corruption & state capture", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "The diversion of public office, contracts and money to private interests persists where oversight is weak, reducing real capability below what budgets and laws suggest and undermining enforcement and public trust.", "tags": [ "institutions", "politics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 4, "S06": 1, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 4, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 3, "S15": 1, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 1, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "illicit-finance-and-beneficial-ownership", "name": "Illicit finance & beneficial ownership", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Complex ownership structures and cross-border flows continue to conceal money laundering, corruption proceeds and sanctions evasion, making enforcement depend on verified ownership registers, capable supervisors and cooperation between authorities.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "institutions", "data-governance" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 3, "S03": 1, "S04": 0, "S05": 1, "S06": 0, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 1, "S10": 1, "S11": 3, "S12": 1, "S13": 2, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "regulatory-capture-and-lobbying-power", "name": "Regulatory capture & lobbying power", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Concentrated industries and organised interests are gaining resources to shape the rules and regulators that govern them, entrenching incumbents and delaying public-interest regulation where supervisors rely on those they oversee.", "tags": [ "institutions", "politics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 1, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 1, "S12": 3, "S13": 1, "S14": 1, "S15": 3, "S16": 1, "S17": 3, "S18": 3, "S19": 3, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "adaptive-regulation", "name": "Adaptive regulation", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Regulators are moving from fixed rulebooks to iterative, evidence-based oversight as technology and business models change faster than legislation, which makes national oversight depend on technical skill and can reduce predictability.", "tags": [ "institutions", "data-governance" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 4, "S09": 3, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 3, "S16": 2, "S17": 4, "S18": 3, "S19": 2, "S20": 2 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "ai-safety-and-governance", "name": "AI safety & governance", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Requirements for evaluation, verification and liability for advanced AI are being set nationally and internationally, with the strength of enforceable scrutiny determining whether states can deploy powerful systems at acceptable risk.", "tags": [ "ai", "institutions", "data-governance" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 5, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 5, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "algorithmic-accountability-and-bias", "name": "Algorithmic accountability & bias", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Automated decisions in welfare, policing, lending and hiring can reproduce bias from data and models, increasing demands for audit, explanation and redress that test the capacity of courts and oversight bodies.", "tags": [ "ai", "inequality", "institutions" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 4, "S19": 1, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "data-protection-and-digital-rights", "name": "Data protection & digital rights", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Wider collection and automated use of personal data by firms and states are increasing demands for privacy rules, accessible remedies and capable supervisors, which set the terms for digital markets and state surveillance.", "tags": [ "data-governance", "institutions", "consumer" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 1, "S09": 4, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 1, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 5, "S19": 2, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "carbon-pricing-and-environmental-taxes", "name": "Carbon pricing & environmental taxes", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "More jurisdictions are charging for emissions, waste and pollution through taxes and trading schemes, which shifts investment and revenue while demanding reliable measurement, enforcement and management of unequal adjustment costs.", "tags": [ "carbon", "climate", "institutions" ], 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"information" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 1, "S03": 1, "S04": 3, "S05": 5, "S06": 1, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 1, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 1, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "polarisation-and-populism", "name": "Polarisation & populism", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Stronger partisan identities and movements opposed to established institutions and expertise are reducing the scope for agreement across parties, weakening the ability of governments to sustain reforms and secure acceptance of electoral and judicial outcomes.", "tags": [ "politics", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 1, "S03": 0, "S04": 2, "S05": 6, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 1, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 2 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "citizen-participation-and-deliberative-democracy", "name": "Citizen participation & deliberative democracy", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Governments are making uneven use of citizens' assemblies, consultation and digital participation to build consent for difficult decisions, which strengthens legitimacy only where the results carry real influence over policy.", "tags": [ "politics", "institutions" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 3, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 1, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 1, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "civil-unrest-and-protest-mobilisation", "name": "Civil unrest & protest mobilisation", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Inequality, cost-of-living pressure and easier mobilisation are sustaining protest and disorder, testing the ability of governments to respond to grievances while keeping public order and protecting legitimate participation.", "tags": [ "politics", "inequality", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 3, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 5, "S06": 4, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 1, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "asylum-and-migration-system-strain", "name": "Asylum & migration system strain", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Arrivals and contested rules are outpacing the casework, reception and legal systems built to process them, creating backlogs that weaken border control, raise costs and reduce public confidence in government.", "tags": [ "demography", "institutions", "politics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 4, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "social-protection-coverage-gaps", "name": "Social protection coverage gaps", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Changing employment patterns and household risks are outgrowing social protection systems in many countries, so that the costs of shocks fall directly on households, deepen poverty and weaken public consent for government.", "tags": [ "inequality", "institutions", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 4, "S03": 1, "S04": 1, "S05": 2, "S06": 4, "S07": 4, "S08": 5, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 1, "S15": 0, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 3, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "state-governance" }, { "id": "global-health-governance", "name": "Global health governance", "domain": "governance-integrity", "description": "Uneven funding and contested obligations are weakening international health bodies and outbreak reporting rules, leaving national preparedness more dependent on voluntary cooperation, regional arrangements and domestic surveillance capacity.", "tags": [ "health-systems", "institutions", "disease" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 6, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 0, "S19": 3, "S20": 6 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "sovereign-debt-and-interest-burden", "name": "Sovereign debt & interest burden", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Public debt is at record levels and is being refinanced at higher interest rates, so that interest payments take a growing share of revenue from health, education, defence and public investment.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "institutions", "politics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 6, "S03": 1, "S04": 0, "S05": 1, "S06": 1, "S07": 3, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 6, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 1, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "money-debt" }, { "id": "sovereign-creditor-fragmentation", "name": "Sovereign creditor fragmentation", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Sovereign debt is now owed to bondholders, China and other new lenders as well as the Paris Club, which lengthens restructurings and keeps distressed nations without market access for longer.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "geoeconomics", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 4, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 6, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "money-debt" }, { "id": "slow-growth-and-fiscal-space", "name": "Slow growth & fiscal space", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Weak productivity and lower trend growth are slowing revenue relative to established spending commitments, narrowing fiscal choices and sharpening disputes over who bears the cost of adjustment.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "politics", "inequality" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 4, "S03": 1, "S04": 1, "S05": 1, "S06": 2, "S07": 3, "S08": 4, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 3, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 3, "S18": 2, "S19": 2, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "money-debt" }, { "id": "age-related-fiscal-liabilities", "name": "Age-related fiscal liabilities", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Pension, health and long-term care obligations are rising as populations age and the base of contributors shrinks, forcing nations to choose between lower benefits, higher taxes and more public debt.", "tags": [ "demography", "debt-finance", "longevity" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 2, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 5, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "money-debt" }, { "id": "tax-base-erosion-and-coordination", "name": "Tax base erosion & coordination", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Value is moving to mobile capital, digital platforms and low-tax jurisdictions while tax systems still rest on payroll and physical presence, making national revenue depend on enforcement and incomplete international coordination.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "geoeconomics", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 1, "S06": 1, "S07": 1, "S08": 4, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 2, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 3, "S19": 1, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "money-debt" }, { "id": "hydrocarbon-revenue-dependence", "name": "Hydrocarbon revenue dependence", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Energy substitution and a plateau in oil demand are reducing the long-term revenue prospects of exporting states, exposing budgets and currency pegs that rest on export rents and narrow tax bases.", "tags": [ "fossil", "debt-finance", "geoeconomics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 1, "S03": 3, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 2, "S15": 5, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "money-debt" }, { "id": "structural-inflation-pressure", "name": "Structural inflation pressure", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Supply constraints, ageing workforces and recurring energy and food disruptions are making price pressure more frequent, which reduces household purchasing power, constrains central banks and raises the cost of public borrowing.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "politics", "inequality" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 2, "S03": 4, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 5, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 1, "S14": 1, "S15": 1, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, 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monetary control in some nations and creates dependence on foreign issuers and their reserves.", "tags": [ "digital-finance", "geoeconomics", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 4, "S03": 0, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 4, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 3, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "money-debt" }, { "id": "external-liquidity-buffer-requirements", "name": "External liquidity buffer requirements", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Volatile capital flows and larger cross-border liabilities are raising the reserves and swap lines a nation needs, making financial autonomy depend on buffers it can use quickly under stress.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "geoeconomics", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 6, "S03": 1, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 3, "S12": 2, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, 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availability of capital for nations and firms.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "carbon", "climate" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 2, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "money-debt" }, { "id": "disaster-risk-finance", "name": "Disaster risk finance", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "More nations are arranging catastrophe bonds, contingent credit and insurance pools before disasters occur, so that money arrives within days and the fiscal and human cost of each disaster is reduced.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "climate", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 6, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 1, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "insurance-retreat-and-insurability", "name": "Insurance retreat & insurability", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Rising losses are leading insurers to withdraw from or reprice exposed regions and activities, shifting risk to households, lenders and public budgets and reducing the mortgage lending that depends on cover.", "tags": [ "climate", "debt-finance", "resilience" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 1, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 5, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "energy-climate-networks" }, { "id": "non-bank-finance-growth", "name": "Non-bank finance growth", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Private credit funds, hedge funds and other lenders outside the banking perimeter are taking a growing share of lending, widening funding sources while moving risk to institutions with less disclosure and supervision.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 5, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 3, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "money-debt" }, { "id": "bank-funding-and-deposit-mobility", "name": "Bank funding & deposit mobility", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Digital banking lets deposits leave a bank within hours, raising the liquidity, deposit protection and supervisory speed a nation needs to prevent a loss of confidence becoming a run.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "digital-finance", "institutions" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 6, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 2, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "money-debt" }, { "id": "financial-market-infrastructure-resilience", "name": "Financial market infrastructure resilience", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Payment, clearing and settlement activity is concentrating in a few systems exposed to cyber and operational failure, so national financial continuity depends on tested recovery within hours and redundant connections.", "tags": [ "digital-finance", "cyber", "resilience" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 4, "S03": 0, "S04": 3, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 4, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "money-debt" }, { "id": "stretched-asset-valuations", "name": "Stretched asset valuations", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Prices of equities, property and private assets have run ahead of earnings and incomes, so that a sharp repricing would damage household wealth, pension funds, bank balance sheets and public 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"commercial-property-repricing", "name": "Commercial property repricing", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Remote work and online retail are reducing demand for offices and shops, lowering property values and weakening the banks, insurers and pension funds whose lending and investment are concentrated in them.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "cities", "work-skills" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 5, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "money-debt" }, { "id": "household-debt-and-housing-affordability", "name": "Household debt & housing affordability", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "High housing costs and mortgage debt are absorbing a growing share of household income, increasing sensitivity to interest rates and employment and excluding younger households from building assets.", "tags": [ "debt-finance", "inequality", "cities" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 3, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 1, "S06": 0, "S07": 2, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "money-debt" }, { "id": "digital-payments-and-cash-decline", "name": "Digital payments & cash decline", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Cash and branches are giving way to digital payments and embedded finance, lowering transaction costs but leaving households and shops dependent on power, networks and a small number of providers.", "tags": [ "digital-finance", "resilience", "connectivity" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 3, "S03": 0, "S04": 4, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 4, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 4, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "money-debt" }, { "id": "financial-inclusion", "name": "Financial inclusion", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Mobile accounts, small-scale credit, savings and insurance are reaching people previously outside formal finance, strengthening household resilience where services are affordable and consumer protection limits over-indebtedness and fraud.", "tags": [ "digital-finance", "inequality", "consumer" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 1, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 2, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 3, "S17": 0, "S18": 4, "S19": 1, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "money-debt" }, { "id": "tokenisation-of-financial-assets", "name": "Tokenisation of financial assets", "domain": "financial-strength", "description": "Distributed ledgers and programmable settlement are moving from speculative crypto-assets into regulated securities and ownership records, requiring nations to adapt market infrastructure, law and supervision to keep legal certainty.", 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}, { "id": "technology-diffusion-and-productivity-gaps", "name": "Technology diffusion & productivity gaps", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Advanced tools and effective management practices are reaching smaller firms slowly, sustaining wide productivity gaps between leading and lagging enterprises within industries and holding down national output.", "tags": [ "manufacturing", "work-skills", "inequality" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 4, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 4, "S17": 3, "S18": 2, "S19": 0, "S20": 2 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "business-dynamism-and-start-up-formation", "name": "Business dynamism & start-up formation", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Rates of firm creation, growth and exit are diverging across economies, determining how quickly capital and labour move to more productive businesses 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"paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "manufacturing-overcapacity", "name": "Manufacturing overcapacity", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Subsidised investment in steel, solar, batteries and vehicles is outpacing demand, pushing low-priced exports into other markets and closing plants in nations whose producers cannot withstand prolonged low margins.", "tags": [ "manufacturing", "trade", "geoeconomics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 4, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "reshoring-and-localised-manufacturing", "name": "Reshoring & localised manufacturing", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Automation, additive manufacturing and smaller flexible plants are improving the economics of producing near demand, giving nations localisation options for resilience without removing scale, cost and supplier constraints.", "tags": [ "manufacturing", "resilience", "logistics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 4, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 1, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "industrial-robotics-and-automation", "name": "Industrial robotics & automation", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "More firms are deploying robots in factories, warehouses and logistics, raising output and changing labour demand where integration skills, maintenance capacity and suitable processes support effective use.", "tags": [ "robotics", "manufacturing", "work-skills" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 2, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 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[ "biotech", "manufacturing", "health-systems", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 3, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 0, "S19": 3, "S20": 5 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "agricultural-technology", "name": "Agricultural technology", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Precision sensing, targeted inputs, robotics and controlled-environment growing are spreading unevenly across farms, raising yields and cutting water and input use where farm scale, skills and finance allow adoption.", "tags": [ "food-systems", "robotics", "water" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 4, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 5, "S17": 1, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "food-water-nature" }, { "id": "alternative-proteins", "name": "Alternative proteins", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Protein made from plants, fermentation, insects and cultivated cells is slowly gaining share from animal farming, giving nations new food industry options that depend on cost, consumer acceptance and manufacturing scale.", "tags": [ "food-systems", "biotech", "consumer" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 1, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "food-water-nature" }, { "id": "diet-and-nutrition-shifts", "name": "Diet & nutrition shifts", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Demand for healthier and more targeted nutrition, backed by evidence linking diet to health outcomes, is changing food formulation and retail and shifting what agriculture and food manufacturers are asked to produce.", "tags": [ "food-systems", "consumer", "health-systems" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 4, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "people-health-work" }, { "id": "food-loss-and-waste", "name": "Food loss & waste", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Uneven progress in handling, forecasting and redistribution is reducing the large share of food lost between farm and household, determining how much output, land and emissions nations can recover.", "tags": [ "food-systems", "circular", "logistics" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 3, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 3, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "food-water-nature" }, { "id": "ocean-economy", "name": "Ocean economy", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Offshore energy, shipping, marine resources and seabed mineral prospects are expanding economic activity at sea, creating new industries while increasing competition over sea space and pressure on marine ecosystems.", "tags": [ "nature", "clean-energy", "materials" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 1, "S02": 0, "S03": 4, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 4, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "aquaculture-intensification", "name": "Aquaculture intensification", "domain": "production-innovation", "description": "Farmed fish and shellfish are supplying a growing share of seafood as wild catches stagnate, opening food production opportunities that depend on disease control, feed efficiency and environmental management.", "tags": [ "food-systems", "nature" ], "support": 1, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 2, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "food-water-nature" }, { "id": "critical-minerals-supply-constraints", "name": "Critical minerals supply constraints", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Demand for lithium, copper, nickel and other minerals is rising faster than mines and infrastructure can be developed, making access to supply a constraint on national electrification, manufacturing and defence production.", "tags": [ "materials", "trade", "clean-energy" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 4, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "rare-earth-processing-concentration", "name": "Rare earth processing concentration", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Refining of rare earths and production of permanent magnets remain concentrated in one country that licenses exports as policy, giving that supplier leverage over other nations' defence and electrified industries.", "tags": [ "materials", "geoeconomics", "trade" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 6, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "critical-input-supplier-concentration", "name": "Critical input supplier concentration", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Many industrial components, chemicals and intermediate goods come from a single country or firm with no substitute that can be scaled quickly, which turns suppliers' commercial and political decisions into leverage over importing nations.", "tags": [ "trade", "geoeconomics", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 6, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 1, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "fertiliser-supply-dependence", "name": "Fertiliser supply dependence", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Crop production depends on nitrogen, phosphate and potash from a few exporters and on natural gas as a feedstock, which ties national food output to energy prices and the trade decisions of suppliers.", "tags": [ "food-systems", "trade", "geoeconomics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 1, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 6, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 4, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "food-water-nature" }, { "id": "staple-food-export-concentration", "name": "Staple food export concentration", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "World trade in wheat, rice, maize and soya comes from a small number of exporting regions that restrict shipments when harvests fail, leaving food-importing nations exposed to shortages and sharp price rises.", "tags": [ "food-systems", "trade", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 6, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 5, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "food-water-nature" }, { "id": "energy-import-dependence", "name": "Energy import dependence", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Many economies rely on imported oil, gas and LNG from a few suppliers under inflexible contracts and fixed routes, which exposes their industry and households to price rises and interrupted supply.", "tags": [ "fossil", "trade", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 6, "S04": 1, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 4, "S15": 5, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "pharmaceutical-input-concentration", "name": "Pharmaceutical input concentration", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Active pharmaceutical ingredients and chemical intermediates are produced in a few countries, leaving national health systems with limited purchasing options when exporters restrict supply or a qualified plant fails inspection.", "tags": [ "health-systems", "trade", "resilience" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 4, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 4, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 3, "S20": 3 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "commodity-dependence-and-price-volatility", "name": "Commodity dependence & price 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1, "S02": 0, "S03": 4, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 1, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 2, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "lean-inventories-and-just-in-time-logistics", "name": "Lean inventories & just-in-time logistics", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Firms hold low stocks of fuel, food, medicines and components to cut cost and have only partly rebuilt buffers since recent disruptions, so delivery delays still become stoppages in national supply.", "tags": [ "logistics", "resilience", "trade" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 3, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 3, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 1, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "trade-and-logistics-digitalisation", "name": "Trade & logistics digitalisation", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Electronic documents, interoperable customs systems and automated ports and warehouses are spreading across trade networks, which lowers transaction costs for nations whose law and agencies support them and raises exposure to cyber disruption.", "tags": [ "logistics", "trade", "connectivity", "cyber" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 4, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 5, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 3, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 1, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "trade-corridor-competition", "name": "Trade corridor competition", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Rival states and lenders are financing ports, railways and energy routes to redirect trade towards themselves, which gives host nations new connectivity but can add debt and dependence on the financing power.", "tags": [ "logistics", "geoeconomics", "trade" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 3, "S13": 1, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "trade-finance-and-correspondent-banking-gaps", "name": "Trade finance & correspondent banking gaps", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Banks are withdrawing correspondent relationships and trade credit from smaller and riskier markets as compliance costs rise, which raises the cost of importing and exporting for small firms and fragile economies.", "tags": [ "trade", "debt-finance", "inequality" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 5, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 3, "S12": 1, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "money-debt" }, { "id": "tariff-barrier-normalisation", "name": "Tariff barrier normalisation", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Broad tariffs are becoming a routine instrument of economic competition and prompt repeated rounds of retaliation, which raises costs for exporters and makes access to large markets uncertain from year to year.", "tags": [ "trade", "geoeconomics", "politics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 5, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 3, "S13": 5, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "regional-trade-agreement-deepening", "name": "Regional trade agreement deepening", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Regional agreements are extending beyond tariffs into services, investment and regulation while global rule-making stalls, so a nation's market access depends on membership and on its capacity to implement partner rules.", "tags": [ "trade", "institutions", "geoeconomics" ], 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"Economic security policy", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Governments increasingly treat supply chains, technology and inward investment as security matters and apply screening, diversification targets and resilience mandates, which widens the scope of trade policy and raises compliance demands on firms.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "trade", "institutions" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 5, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 3, "S13": 4, "S14": 0, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 3, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "export-controls-and-economic-coercion", "name": "Export controls & economic coercion", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "States are widening licensing regimes, sanctions and technology controls and applying them to third countries, which makes a nation's access to markets, inputs and advanced capabilities conditional on its political alignment.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "trade", "politics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 6, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 5, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 2, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "sanctions-circumvention-networks", "name": "Sanctions circumvention networks", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Restricted oil and goods increasingly move through intermediaries, front companies and uninsured vessels, which weakens sanctions as an instrument and exposes trading nations to enforcement action and unreliable counterparties.", "tags": [ "trade", "geoeconomics", "logistics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 0, "S03": 2, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 1, "S14": 3, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "carbon-border-adjustments", "name": "Carbon border adjustments", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "More markets are charging for or setting limits on the emissions embedded in imports, which shifts export competitiveness towards nations with low-carbon production and the ability to measure and verify product emissions.", "tags": [ "carbon", "trade", "geoeconomics" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 4, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "non-tariff-compliance-and-traceability", "name": "Non-tariff compliance & traceability", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Product, labour and provenance requirements are diverging between markets and increasingly demand digital product records, so export access depends on a nation's testing laboratories, certification 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"paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "foreign-investment-slowdown-and-selectivity", "name": "Foreign investment slowdown & selectivity", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Cross-border investment into many developing economies is falling as investors weigh political risk and screening more heavily, which reduces capital and technology transfer for nations lacking credible institutions and accessible markets.", "tags": [ "trade", "geoeconomics", "debt-finance" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 4, "S02": 4, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 4, "S13": 2, "S14": 2, "S15": 3, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "sovereign-wealth-and-state-capital", "name": "Sovereign wealth & state capital", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Sovereign funds and state-owned enterprises are becoming larger investors and owners abroad, which gives recipient nations new sources of finance and raises questions about foreign control of strategic assets.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "debt-finance", "trade" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 1, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 2, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 2, "S15": 2, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "intellectual-property-access-dependence", "name": "Intellectual property access dependence", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Licensing terms and control of proprietary knowledge increasingly determine who can use valuable production methods, which limits industrial upgrading in nations whose firms cannot negotiate access or develop alternatives.", "tags": [ "trade", "manufacturing", "geoeconomics" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 3, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 3, "S09": 0, "S10": 2, "S11": 0, "S12": 0, "S13": 3, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 5, "S17": 5, "S18": 0, "S19": 5, "S20": 4 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "shifting-economic-weight", "name": "Shifting economic weight", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Different demographic and productivity paths are moving production, demand and investment towards Asia and other emerging economies, which changes who sets trade rules and which partners matter most to each nation.", "tags": [ "geoeconomics", "trade", "demography" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 2, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 3, "S13": 2, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "emerging-middle-class-demand", "name": "Emerging middle-class demand", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Household purchasing power is rising for hundreds of millions of people in Asia and parts of Africa, which moves growth in demand for goods, services and energy towards those markets and their suppliers.", "tags": [ "consumer", "trade", "demography" ], "support": 3, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 0, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 0, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 0, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 0 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" }, { "id": "africa-s-demographic-and-economic-rise", "name": "Africa's demographic & economic rise", "domain": "trade-investment", "description": "Africa will supply much of the world's growth in working-age population and a rising share of consumption, which makes its markets, resources and continental integration a focus of investment and competition for influence.", "tags": [ "demography", "trade", "geoeconomics" ], "support": 2, "scenarios": { "S01": 0, "S02": 0, "S03": 0, "S04": 0, "S05": 0, "S06": 1, "S07": 0, "S08": 0, "S09": 0, "S10": 0, "S11": 2, "S12": 2, "S13": 0, "S14": 0, "S15": 0, "S16": 2, "S17": 0, "S18": 0, "S19": 0, "S20": 1 }, "paradigm": "trade-industry" } ], "paradigms": [ { "key": "trade-industry", "anchor": "trade-and-investment-fragmentation", "label": "Trade, industry & supply chains", "colour": "#fa8205", "description": "Who depends on whom for goods, inputs and markets; the tariffs, controls and industrial policy used to change it; and the manufacturing and clean-technology supply chains it is fought over.", "count": 45 }, { "key": "people-health-work", "anchor": "population-ageing", "label": "People, health & work", "colour": "#2ec2ff", "description": "How many people there are, how well and how skilled they are, what work is left for them as automation spreads, and the medicine and health systems that keep them well.", "count": 43 }, { "key": "conflict-security", "anchor": "great-power-competition", "label": "Conflict & security", "colour": "#f80315", "description": "Rivalry between powers, the weapons and forces being built for it, the contest in cyberspace, at sea and in orbit, and the violence of states that are failing.", "count": 30 }, { "key": "energy-climate-networks", "anchor": "grid-expansion-and-demand-flexibility", "label": "Energy, networks & climate resilience", "colour": "#37c43e", "description": "The physical systems a nation runs on: power, fuel, transport, water and communications, and their exposure to a changing climate and to the hazards it brings.", "count": 28 }, { "key": "state-governance", "anchor": "state-capacity-and-delivery", "label": "State capacity & governance", "colour": "#1f4e9c", "description": "Whether the state can decide, deliver and be held to account: administration, regulation, integrity, the rule of law, and the politics that strain them.", "count": 26 }, { "key": "money-debt", "anchor": "sovereign-debt-and-interest-burden", "label": "Money & debt", "colour": "#fdc103", "description": "Public debt and fiscal room, the currencies and payment systems money moves through, and the banks, markets and non-bank lenders that can seize up.", "count": 25 }, { "key": "information-trust", "anchor": "misinformation-and-disinformation", "label": "Information & trust", "colour": "#8a9a1c", "description": "What people can know and whom they believe: platforms, journalism, synthetic media, manipulation from abroad and the trust in institutions that all of it wears down.", "count": 18 }, { "key": "ai-compute", "anchor": "general-purpose-ai-capability", "label": "AI, compute & quantum", "colour": "#6652ff", "description": "The capability of AI systems, who controls the models, chips and cloud they depend on, and the quantum technologies that will unsettle today’s cryptography.", "count": 14 }, { "key": "food-water-nature", "anchor": "staple-food-export-concentration", "label": "Food, water & nature", "colour": "#0f9d8a", "description": "The land, water and living systems that food comes from, the inputs and trade it depends on, and the technologies that could raise output or lower its cost to nature.", "count": 11 }, { "key": "diplomacy-influence", "anchor": "weakening-multilateral-institutions", "label": "Diplomacy & influence", "colour": "#d6409f", "description": "A nation’s standing and leverage abroad: coalitions, multilateral institutions, standards, development finance, students and culture, and the credibility of its commitments.", "count": 10 } ], "themes_method": "Themes are the clusters of the trend network. Trends are linked where their similarity is Moderate or above, and the Louvain method finds the groups of trends that are more closely linked to each other than to the rest. The groups are found by the method; the names and descriptions are GINC's." }