{
  "note": "Second pass of the trend list, October 2026. Three AI models worked first separately and then with sight of each other; a fourth made the final cut to GINC's brief. The scenario side of the same pass is recorded at https://scenarios.ginc.org/data/second-pass.json.",
  "panel": [
    {
      "key": "A",
      "model": "DeepSeek V4 Pro"
    },
    {
      "key": "B",
      "model": "Mistral Large"
    },
    {
      "key": "C",
      "model": "GPT-6.1"
    }
  ],
  "final_cut": "Claude",
  "trends": {
    "changes": {
      "note": "How the GINC 250 changed between the first pass and the second. A first-pass trend is carried forward where a final trend is the same force, merged where it was folded into a final trend that also continues another, and dropped where nothing in the final list continues it.",
      "counts": {
        "unchanged": 119,
        "renamed": 106,
        "moved_domain": 3,
        "merged": 15,
        "dropped": 9,
        "added": 24,
        "added_wholly_new": 24
      },
      "by_domain": [
        {
          "domain": "critical-technology",
          "before": 26,
          "after": 28
        },
        {
          "domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
          "before": 34,
          "after": 29
        },
        {
          "domain": "national-security",
          "before": 28,
          "after": 28
        },
        {
          "domain": "human-capital",
          "before": 32,
          "after": 28
        },
        {
          "domain": "information-influence",
          "before": 25,
          "after": 27
        },
        {
          "domain": "governance-integrity",
          "before": 26,
          "after": 27
        },
        {
          "domain": "financial-strength",
          "before": 26,
          "after": 27
        },
        {
          "domain": "production-innovation",
          "before": 27,
          "after": 28
        },
        {
          "domain": "trade-investment",
          "before": 26,
          "after": 28
        }
      ],
      "unchanged": [
        "adaptive-regulation",
        "advanced-materials",
        "advanced-semiconductors",
        "africa-s-demographic-and-economic-rise",
        "agricultural-technology",
        "ai-accelerated-science",
        "ai-chips-and-accelerator-supply",
        "ai-drug-development",
        "ai-safety-and-governance",
        "alliance-realignment-and-burden-shifting",
        "alternative-proteins",
        "antimicrobial-resistance",
        "arctic-and-polar-competition",
        "arms-control-erosion",
        "asylum-and-migration-system-strain",
        "automated-ai-research",
        "autonomous-vehicles",
        "batteries-and-energy-storage",
        "biosecurity-and-dual-use-biology",
        "business-dynamism-and-start-up-formation",
        "capital-concentration-in-ai",
        "carbon-border-adjustments",
        "carbon-capture-utilisation-and-storage",
        "carbon-pricing-and-environmental-taxes",
        "censorship-and-surveillance",
        "central-bank-independence-under-pressure",
        "circular-materials-and-recycling",
        "citizen-participation-and-deliberative-democracy",
        "civil-service-capability-and-pay",
        "climate-change-and-physical-risk",
        "cloud-and-edge-computing",
        "compute-scaling-and-ai-infrastructure",
        "conscription-and-reserve-mobilisation",
        "conspiracy-movements-and-science-denial",
        "construction-productivity-and-housing-supply",
        "dams-reservoirs-and-flood-defence",
        "data-protection-and-digital-rights",
        "decline-of-independent-journalism",
        "declining-institutional-trust",
        "defence-industrial-base-and-munitions",
        "development-finance-as-influence",
        "diet-and-nutrition-shifts",
        "digital-public-infrastructure",
        "digital-sovereignty-and-data-localisation",
        "diplomatic-capacity-under-strain",
        "disaster-risk-finance",
        "distributed-power",
        "drone-and-autonomous-warfare",
        "drones-and-advanced-air-mobility",
        "economic-security-policy",
        "election-integrity-and-interference",
        "energy-import-dependence",
        "enhanced-geothermal",
        "erosion-of-rights-and-civic-freedoms",
        "espionage-and-insider-threat",
        "executive-overreach-and-emergency-powers",
        "financial-inclusion",
        "fiscal-rules-and-budget-credibility",
        "foreign-information-manipulation",
        "frontier-model-concentration",
        "fusion-energy",
        "gene-editing-and-cell-therapies",
        "global-health-governance",
        "global-south-coalitions",
        "great-power-competition",
        "household-debt-and-housing-affordability",
        "hydrogen-and-low-carbon-fuels",
        "illicit-finance-and-beneficial-ownership",
        "industrial-policy-competition",
        "insurance-retreat-and-insurability",
        "international-student-flows",
        "lithography-and-chip-tool-chokepoints",
        "local-and-city-government-capacity",
        "manufacturing-overcapacity",
        "medical-devices-and-neurotechnology",
        "militarisation-of-space",
        "misinformation-and-disinformation",
        "next-generation-mobile-networks",
        "non-bank-finance-growth",
        "ocean-economy",
        "official-statistics-and-data-capacity",
        "online-harms-and-safety",
        "open-source-intelligence-and-transparency",
        "open-weight-ai-diffusion",
        "organised-crime-and-illicit-economies",
        "outsourcing-and-public-private-delivery",
        "platform-power-over-public-discourse",
        "polarisation-and-populism",
        "post-quantum-cryptography-transition",
        "private-military-and-proxy-forces",
        "public-communication-in-crisis",
        "public-sector-ai-adoption",
        "quantum-computing",
        "rare-earth-processing-concentration",
        "rearmament-and-defence-spending",
        "regional-medicines-manufacturing",
        "regulatory-capture-and-lobbying-power",
        "religious-and-identity-nationalism",
        "remittance-dependence",
        "research-and-development-intensity",
        "research-security-and-science-decoupling",
        "reshoring-and-localised-manufacturing",
        "retail-and-food-service-automation",
        "rule-of-law-and-judicial-independence",
        "smart-manufacturing-and-digital-twins",
        "soft-power-and-cultural-influence",
        "sovereign-wealth-and-state-capital",
        "stablecoins-and-digital-currencies",
        "state-capacity-and-delivery",
        "state-fragility-and-intrastate-violence",
        "strategic-stockpiles-and-reserves",
        "synthetic-biology-and-biomanufacturing",
        "synthetic-media-and-deepfakes",
        "technical-standards-competition",
        "telecom-network-resilience",
        "terrorism-and-violent-extremism",
        "trade-finance-and-correspondent-banking-gaps",
        "weakening-multilateral-institutions",
        "whole-of-society-resilience"
      ],
      "renamed": [
        {
          "from": "Access over ownership",
          "to": "Access over ownership models",
          "id": "access-over-ownership-models",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Modern vaccines",
          "to": "Adaptable vaccine platforms",
          "id": "adaptable-vaccine-platforms",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Advanced nuclear",
          "to": "Advanced nuclear fission",
          "id": "advanced-nuclear-fission",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Pension & care system strain",
          "to": "Age-related fiscal liabilities",
          "id": "age-related-fiscal-liabilities",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "AI agents & knowledge-work automation",
          "to": "AI & knowledge-work automation",
          "id": "ai-and-knowledge-work-automation",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "AI-mediated information",
          "to": "AI-mediated information access",
          "id": "ai-mediated-information-access",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Bank resilience & deposit flight",
          "to": "Bank funding & deposit mobility",
          "id": "bank-funding-and-deposit-mobility",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Biodiversity & nature loss",
          "to": "Biodiversity & ecosystem loss",
          "id": "biodiversity-and-ecosystem-loss",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Precision medicine & oncology",
          "to": "Biomarker-guided precision medicine",
          "id": "biomarker-guided-precision-medicine",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Biometrics",
          "to": "Biometric identification",
          "id": "biometric-identification",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Care economy & unpaid work",
          "to": "Care labour demand growth",
          "id": "care-labour-demand-growth",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Chronic disease burden",
          "to": "Chronic disease & obesity burden",
          "id": "chronic-disease-and-obesity-burden",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Civil unrest",
          "to": "Civil unrest & protest mobilisation",
          "id": "civil-unrest-and-protest-mobilisation",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Climate migration",
          "to": "Climate-related population relocation",
          "id": "climate-related-population-relocation",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Space economy",
          "to": "Commercial launch & space access",
          "id": "commercial-launch-and-space-access",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Commercial real estate stress",
          "to": "Commercial property repricing",
          "id": "commercial-property-repricing",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Commodity price volatility",
          "to": "Commodity dependence & price volatility",
          "id": "commodity-dependence-and-price-volatility",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Aid retrenchment",
          "to": "Concessional finance scarcity",
          "id": "concessional-finance-scarcity",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Internet of Things",
          "to": "Connected infrastructure operation",
          "id": "connected-infrastructure-operation",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Maritime chokepoint dependence",
          "to": "Contested maritime access",
          "id": "contested-maritime-access",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Corruption & kleptocracy",
          "to": "Corruption & state capture",
          "id": "corruption-and-state-capture",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Supply-chain concentration",
          "to": "Critical input supplier concentration",
          "id": "critical-input-supplier-concentration",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Critical minerals supply",
          "to": "Critical minerals supply constraints",
          "id": "critical-minerals-supply-constraints",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Data-centre power demand",
          "to": "Data-centre power & water demand",
          "id": "data-centre-power-and-water-demand",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Transnational repression & diaspora politics",
          "to": "Diaspora politics & transnational repression",
          "id": "diaspora-politics-and-transnational-repression",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Digital & remote care",
          "to": "Digital & AI-supported care",
          "id": "digital-and-ai-supported-care",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Digital & services trade",
          "to": "Digital & services trade growth",
          "id": "digital-and-services-trade-growth",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Cash decline & payment dependence",
          "to": "Digital payments & cash decline",
          "id": "digital-payments-and-cash-decline",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Dollar dependence & payment-rail fragmentation",
          "to": "Dollar dependence & payment fragmentation",
          "id": "dollar-dependence-and-payment-fragmentation",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Early-warning systems",
          "to": "Early-warning coverage",
          "id": "early-warning-coverage",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Geospatial technology",
          "to": "Earth observation & geospatial sensing",
          "id": "earth-observation-and-geospatial-sensing",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Electric transport",
          "to": "Electric transport & charging networks",
          "id": "electric-transport-and-charging-networks",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Electrification of heat, transport & industry",
          "to": "Electrification of heat & industry",
          "id": "electrification-of-heat-and-industry",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Emerging middle class",
          "to": "Emerging middle-class demand",
          "id": "emerging-middle-class-demand",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Inequality",
          "to": "Entrenched opportunity inequality",
          "id": "entrenched-opportunity-inequality",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Export controls & economic statecraft",
          "to": "Export controls & economic coercion",
          "id": "export-controls-and-economic-coercion",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Fertiliser dependence",
          "to": "Fertiliser supply dependence",
          "id": "fertiliser-supply-dependence",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Loss of firm & black-start capacity",
          "to": "Firm & black-start capacity",
          "id": "firm-and-black-start-capacity",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Food waste",
          "to": "Food loss & waste",
          "id": "food-loss-and-waste",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Foreign direct investment slowdown",
          "to": "Foreign investment slowdown & selectivity",
          "id": "foreign-investment-slowdown-and-selectivity",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Fuel logistics & refining capacity",
          "to": "Fossil fuel supply & refining",
          "id": "fossil-fuel-supply-and-refining",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Learning loss & education quality",
          "to": "Foundational learning deficits",
          "id": "foundational-learning-deficits",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Water stress & transboundary water",
          "to": "Freshwater stress & transboundary water",
          "id": "freshwater-stress-and-transboundary-water",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Gender equality & inclusion",
          "to": "Gender participation divergence",
          "id": "gender-participation-divergence",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Humanoid robotics",
          "to": "General-purpose & humanoid robotics",
          "id": "general-purpose-and-humanoid-robotics",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Artificial intelligence",
          "to": "General-purpose AI capability",
          "id": "general-purpose-ai-capability",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Graduate labour market squeeze",
          "to": "Graduate skill mismatch",
          "id": "graduate-skill-mismatch",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Demand flexibility & smart metering",
          "to": "Grid expansion & demand flexibility",
          "id": "grid-expansion-and-demand-flexibility",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Healthcare system reform",
          "to": "Health system demand imbalance",
          "id": "health-system-demand-imbalance",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Health workforce shortage",
          "to": "Health workforce scarcity",
          "id": "health-workforce-scarcity",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Pollution & contaminants",
          "to": "Heat & pollution health burden",
          "id": "heat-and-pollution-health-burden",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Hybrid & grey-zone warfare",
          "to": "Hybrid & grey-zone coercion",
          "id": "hybrid-and-grey-zone-coercion",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Peak oil demand & petrostate exposure",
          "to": "Hydrocarbon revenue dependence",
          "id": "hydrocarbon-revenue-dependence",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Robotics & automation",
          "to": "Industrial robotics & automation",
          "id": "industrial-robotics-and-automation",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Informal employment",
          "to": "Informal employment persistence",
          "id": "informal-employment-persistence",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Infrastructure ageing",
          "to": "Infrastructure ageing & maintenance backlog",
          "id": "infrastructure-ageing-and-maintenance-backlog",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Climate finance & loss and damage",
          "to": "International climate finance gaps",
          "id": "international-climate-finance-gaps",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Just-in-time logistics & thin inventories",
          "to": "Lean inventories & just-in-time logistics",
          "id": "lean-inventories-and-just-in-time-logistics",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Reskilling & education technology",
          "to": "Lifelong learning & digital reskilling",
          "id": "lifelong-learning-and-digital-reskilling",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Missile & long-range strike proliferation",
          "to": "Long-range strike proliferation",
          "id": "long-range-strike-proliferation",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Mental health",
          "to": "Mental health demand growth",
          "id": "mental-health-demand-growth",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Rise of middle powers",
          "to": "Middle-power diplomatic leverage",
          "id": "middle-power-diplomatic-leverage",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Nuclear & WMD proliferation",
          "to": "Nuclear arsenal growth & proliferation",
          "id": "nuclear-arsenal-growth-and-proliferation",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Zoonotic spillover & pandemic risk",
          "to": "Pathogen emergence pressure",
          "id": "pathogen-emergence-pressure",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Armed conflict at post-war highs",
          "to": "Persistent armed conflict",
          "id": "persistent-armed-conflict",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Malnutrition",
          "to": "Persistent nutritional deprivation",
          "id": "persistent-nutritional-deprivation",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Falling fertility & population decline",
          "to": "Persistently low fertility",
          "id": "persistently-low-fertility",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Pharmaceutical supply concentration",
          "to": "Pharmaceutical input concentration",
          "id": "pharmaceutical-input-concentration",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Ageing population",
          "to": "Population ageing",
          "id": "population-ageing",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Port & shipping concentration",
          "to": "Port & carrier concentration",
          "id": "port-and-carrier-concentration",
          "moved": "Strategic Infrastructure to Trade & Investment"
        },
        {
          "from": "Public procurement reform",
          "to": "Public procurement capability",
          "id": "public-procurement-capability",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Rail & mass transit investment",
          "to": "Rail & mass transit expansion",
          "id": "rail-and-mass-transit-expansion",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Ransomware & cybercrime",
          "to": "Ransomware & cyber extortion",
          "id": "ransomware-and-cyber-extortion",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Regional trade agreements",
          "to": "Regional trade agreement deepening",
          "id": "regional-trade-agreement-deepening",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Energy poverty",
          "to": "Reliable energy access gaps",
          "id": "reliable-energy-access-gaps",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Renewable energy",
          "to": "Renewable generation expansion",
          "id": "renewable-generation-expansion",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Child & maternal health",
          "to": "Reproductive, maternal & child health",
          "id": "reproductive-maternal-and-child-health",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Building codes & resilient construction",
          "to": "Resilient construction & asset adaptation",
          "id": "resilient-construction-and-asset-adaptation",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Sanctions evasion & shadow fleets",
          "to": "Sanctions circumvention networks",
          "id": "sanctions-circumvention-networks",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Hygiene & sanitation",
          "to": "Sanitation & hygiene access gaps",
          "id": "sanitation-and-hygiene-access-gaps",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Satellite mega-constellations",
          "to": "Satellite connectivity expansion",
          "id": "satellite-connectivity-expansion",
          "moved": "Critical Technology to Strategic Infrastructure"
        },
        {
          "from": "GNSS & timing dependence",
          "to": "Satellite positioning & timing dependence",
          "id": "satellite-positioning-and-timing-dependence",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Shifting economic power",
          "to": "Shifting economic weight",
          "id": "shifting-economic-weight",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Brain drain & talent migration",
          "to": "Skilled & research talent migration",
          "id": "skilled-and-research-talent-migration",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Economic stagnation",
          "to": "Slow growth & fiscal space",
          "id": "slow-growth-and-fiscal-space",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Weak social protection",
          "to": "Social protection coverage gaps",
          "id": "social-protection-coverage-gaps",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Solar & storage cost collapse",
          "to": "Solar manufacturing cost decline",
          "id": "solar-manufacturing-cost-decline",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Creditor fragmentation",
          "to": "Sovereign creditor fragmentation",
          "id": "sovereign-creditor-fragmentation",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Sovereign debt accumulation",
          "to": "Sovereign debt & interest burden",
          "id": "sovereign-debt-and-interest-burden",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Breadbasket & food export concentration",
          "to": "Staple food export concentration",
          "id": "staple-food-export-concentration",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Asset bubbles & stretched valuations",
          "to": "Stretched asset valuations",
          "id": "stretched-asset-valuations",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Inflation & cost of living",
          "to": "Structural inflation pressure",
          "id": "structural-inflation-pressure",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Subsea cable & pipeline vulnerability",
          "to": "Subsea cable & pipeline dependence",
          "id": "subsea-cable-and-pipeline-dependence",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Sustainable consumption",
          "to": "Sustainable consumption & product durability",
          "id": "sustainable-consumption-and-product-durability",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Sustainable finance",
          "to": "Sustainable finance & environmental risk",
          "id": "sustainable-finance-and-environmental-risk",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Tariff escalation",
          "to": "Tariff barrier normalisation",
          "id": "tariff-barrier-normalisation",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Tax base erosion & global tax reform",
          "to": "Tax base erosion & coordination",
          "id": "tax-base-erosion-and-coordination",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Talent & labour shortages",
          "to": "Technical & occupational skill shortages",
          "id": "technical-and-occupational-skill-shortages",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Crypto-assets & tokenisation",
          "to": "Tokenisation of financial assets",
          "id": "tokenisation-of-financial-assets",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Deglobalisation",
          "to": "Trade & investment fragmentation",
          "id": "trade-and-investment-fragmentation",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Trade, shipping & logistics digitalisation",
          "to": "Trade & logistics digitalisation",
          "id": "trade-and-logistics-digitalisation",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Infrastructure corridor competition",
          "to": "Trade corridor competition",
          "id": "trade-corridor-competition",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Urbanisation",
          "to": "Urban population concentration",
          "id": "urban-population-concentration",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Water technology & desalination",
          "to": "Water treatment & desalination",
          "id": "water-treatment-and-desalination",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Youth unemployment & lack of opportunity",
          "to": "Youth employment exclusion",
          "id": "youth-employment-exclusion",
          "moved": null
        },
        {
          "from": "Demographic pressure in young nations",
          "to": "Youth population expansion",
          "id": "youth-population-expansion",
          "moved": null
        }
      ],
      "moved": [
        {
          "name": "Critical infrastructure protection",
          "id": "critical-infrastructure-protection",
          "from": "strategic-infrastructure",
          "to": "national-security"
        },
        {
          "name": "Port & carrier concentration",
          "id": "port-and-carrier-concentration",
          "from": "strategic-infrastructure",
          "to": "trade-investment"
        },
        {
          "name": "Satellite connectivity expansion",
          "id": "satellite-connectivity-expansion",
          "from": "critical-technology",
          "to": "strategic-infrastructure"
        }
      ],
      "merged": [
        {
          "from": "Obesity & GLP-1 medicines",
          "from_domain": "human-capital",
          "into": "Chronic disease & obesity burden",
          "id": "chronic-disease-and-obesity-burden"
        },
        {
          "from": "Earth system tipping points",
          "from_domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
          "into": "Climate change & physical risk",
          "id": "climate-change-and-physical-risk"
        },
        {
          "from": "Smart cities & buildings",
          "from_domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
          "into": "Connected infrastructure operation",
          "id": "connected-infrastructure-operation"
        },
        {
          "from": "Indo-Pacific maritime disputes",
          "from_domain": "national-security",
          "into": "Contested maritime access",
          "id": "contested-maritime-access"
        },
        {
          "from": "AI diagnostics & predictive health",
          "from_domain": "human-capital",
          "into": "Digital & AI-supported care",
          "id": "digital-and-ai-supported-care"
        },
        {
          "from": "Digital payments & FinTech",
          "from_domain": "financial-strength",
          "into": "Digital payments & cash decline",
          "id": "digital-payments-and-cash-decline"
        },
        {
          "from": "Fossil fuel resurgence",
          "from_domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
          "into": "Fossil fuel supply & refining",
          "id": "fossil-fuel-supply-and-refining"
        },
        {
          "from": "Grid enhancement",
          "from_domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
          "into": "Grid expansion & demand flexibility",
          "id": "grid-expansion-and-demand-flexibility"
        },
        {
          "from": "Heat stress & labour productivity",
          "from_domain": "human-capital",
          "into": "Heat & pollution health burden",
          "id": "heat-and-pollution-health-burden"
        },
        {
          "from": "Cyber insecurity",
          "from_domain": "national-security",
          "into": "Ransomware & cyber extortion",
          "id": "ransomware-and-cyber-extortion"
        },
        {
          "from": "Friend-shoring & regional trade blocs",
          "from_domain": "trade-investment",
          "into": "Regional trade agreement deepening",
          "id": "regional-trade-agreement-deepening"
        },
        {
          "from": "Women's health & fertility care",
          "from_domain": "human-capital",
          "into": "Reproductive, maternal & child health",
          "id": "reproductive-maternal-and-child-health"
        },
        {
          "from": "Seismic & geophysical hazard",
          "from_domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
          "into": "Resilient construction & asset adaptation",
          "id": "resilient-construction-and-asset-adaptation"
        },
        {
          "from": "Climate adaptation & resilience",
          "from_domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
          "into": "Resilient construction & asset adaptation",
          "id": "resilient-construction-and-asset-adaptation"
        },
        {
          "from": "Space weather exposure",
          "from_domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
          "into": "Satellite positioning & timing dependence",
          "id": "satellite-positioning-and-timing-dependence"
        }
      ],
      "dropped": [
        {
          "name": "Defence technology",
          "domain": "national-security"
        },
        {
          "name": "Changing nature of work",
          "domain": "human-capital"
        },
        {
          "name": "US policy volatility",
          "domain": "information-influence"
        },
        {
          "name": "China's economic slowdown",
          "domain": "financial-strength"
        },
        {
          "name": "Taiwan Strait tension",
          "domain": "national-security"
        },
        {
          "name": "Russia–NATO confrontation",
          "domain": "national-security"
        },
        {
          "name": "Middle East instability",
          "domain": "national-security"
        },
        {
          "name": "Extended reality & immersive media",
          "domain": "production-innovation"
        },
        {
          "name": "Longevity science",
          "domain": "human-capital"
        }
      ],
      "added": [
        {
          "name": "AI inference efficiency",
          "id": "ai-inference-efficiency",
          "domain": "critical-technology",
          "support": 2,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Quantum sensing & timing",
          "id": "quantum-sensing-and-timing",
          "domain": "critical-technology",
          "support": 3,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Orbital debris & congestion",
          "id": "orbital-debris-and-congestion",
          "domain": "critical-technology",
          "support": 2,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Urban cooling infrastructure",
          "id": "urban-cooling-infrastructure",
          "domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
          "support": 2,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Agricultural soil degradation",
          "id": "agricultural-soil-degradation",
          "domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
          "support": 2,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Food storage & cold chains",
          "id": "food-storage-and-cold-chains",
          "domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
          "support": 1,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Military logistics complexity",
          "id": "military-logistics-complexity",
          "domain": "national-security",
          "support": 3,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "AI-supported military decisions",
          "id": "ai-supported-military-decisions",
          "domain": "national-security",
          "support": 2,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Electromagnetic spectrum contest",
          "id": "electromagnetic-spectrum-contest",
          "domain": "national-security",
          "support": 3,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "State cyber intrusion & prepositioning",
          "id": "state-cyber-intrusion-and-prepositioning",
          "domain": "national-security",
          "support": 3,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Undersea military competition",
          "id": "undersea-military-competition",
          "domain": "national-security",
          "support": 2,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Migrant integration demands",
          "id": "migrant-integration-demands",
          "domain": "human-capital",
          "support": 3,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Healthy lifespan divergence",
          "id": "healthy-lifespan-divergence",
          "domain": "human-capital",
          "support": 2,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Media provenance & authentication",
          "id": "media-provenance-and-authentication",
          "domain": "information-influence",
          "support": 3,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Digital language representation gaps",
          "id": "digital-language-representation-gaps",
          "domain": "information-influence",
          "support": 1,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Credibility of external commitments",
          "id": "credibility-of-external-commitments",
          "domain": "information-influence",
          "support": 2,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Algorithmic accountability & bias",
          "id": "algorithmic-accountability-and-bias",
          "domain": "governance-integrity",
          "support": 2,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "External liquidity buffer requirements",
          "id": "external-liquidity-buffer-requirements",
          "domain": "financial-strength",
          "support": 3,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Domestic capital market deepening",
          "id": "domestic-capital-market-deepening",
          "domain": "financial-strength",
          "support": 3,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Financial market infrastructure resilience",
          "id": "financial-market-infrastructure-resilience",
          "domain": "financial-strength",
          "support": 2,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Technology diffusion & productivity gaps",
          "id": "technology-diffusion-and-productivity-gaps",
          "domain": "production-innovation",
          "support": 3,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Aquaculture intensification",
          "id": "aquaculture-intensification",
          "domain": "production-innovation",
          "support": 1,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Non-tariff compliance & traceability",
          "id": "non-tariff-compliance-and-traceability",
          "domain": "trade-investment",
          "support": 2,
          "takes_in": []
        },
        {
          "name": "Intellectual property access dependence",
          "id": "intellectual-property-access-dependence",
          "domain": "trade-investment",
          "support": 2,
          "takes_in": []
        }
      ]
    },
    "reconciliation": {
      "note": "Changes made across domains after the nine domain cuts, so that no force appears twice and none falls between two domains.",
      "changes": [
        {
          "action": "dropped",
          "domain": "governance-integrity",
          "name": "Digital jurisdiction fragmentation",
          "reason": "The same force as Digital sovereignty & data localisation, kept in critical technology; its legal side was written into that description."
        },
        {
          "action": "added",
          "domain": "strategic-infrastructure",
          "name": "Satellite connectivity expansion",
          "reason": "Each of the two domain cuts left it to the other. All three models hold it."
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "scores": {
    "pairs": 5000,
    "members": [
      {
        "key": "A",
        "model": "DeepSeek V4 Pro"
      },
      {
        "key": "B",
        "model": "Mistral Large"
      },
      {
        "key": "C",
        "model": "GPT-6.1"
      }
    ],
    "method": "Each member scored every trend against every scenario on the seven-point rubric. The score kept is the median of the three.",
    "distribution": [
      {
        "level": 0,
        "share": 73.9
      },
      {
        "level": 1,
        "share": 8
      },
      {
        "level": 2,
        "share": 7.8
      },
      {
        "level": 3,
        "share": 5
      },
      {
        "level": 4,
        "share": 3
      },
      {
        "level": 5,
        "share": 1.7
      },
      {
        "level": 6,
        "share": 0.7
      }
    ],
    "spread": [
      {
        "range": 0,
        "share": 59
      },
      {
        "range": 1,
        "share": 15
      },
      {
        "range": 2,
        "share": 12
      },
      {
        "range": 3,
        "share": 9.3
      },
      {
        "range": 4,
        "share": 3.6
      },
      {
        "range": 5,
        "share": 1
      },
      {
        "range": 6,
        "share": 0
      }
    ],
    "agreement_within_one": {
      "A-B": 89.4,
      "A-C": 83.1,
      "B-C": 79.1
    },
    "wide_disagreements": 231,
    "widest": [
      {
        "trend": "general-purpose-ai-capability",
        "scenario": "S20",
        "scores": [
          0,
          4,
          0
        ],
        "kept": 0
      },
      {
        "trend": "frontier-model-concentration",
        "scenario": "S01",
        "scores": [
          0,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 0
      },
      {
        "trend": "frontier-model-concentration",
        "scenario": "S13",
        "scores": [
          0,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 0
      },
      {
        "trend": "automated-ai-research",
        "scenario": "S08",
        "scores": [
          3,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 3
      },
      {
        "trend": "ai-accelerated-science",
        "scenario": "S16",
        "scores": [
          0,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 0
      },
      {
        "trend": "ai-accelerated-science",
        "scenario": "S20",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "ai-inference-efficiency",
        "scenario": "S17",
        "scores": [
          0,
          2,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "compute-scaling-and-ai-infrastructure",
        "scenario": "S01",
        "scores": [
          1,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 1
      },
      {
        "trend": "compute-scaling-and-ai-infrastructure",
        "scenario": "S02",
        "scores": [
          0,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 0
      },
      {
        "trend": "compute-scaling-and-ai-infrastructure",
        "scenario": "S13",
        "scores": [
          1,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 1
      },
      {
        "trend": "compute-scaling-and-ai-infrastructure",
        "scenario": "S15",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          5
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "cloud-and-edge-computing",
        "scenario": "S01",
        "scores": [
          1,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 1
      },
      {
        "trend": "cloud-and-edge-computing",
        "scenario": "S04",
        "scores": [
          1,
          2,
          5
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "cloud-and-edge-computing",
        "scenario": "S09",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "cloud-and-edge-computing",
        "scenario": "S15",
        "scores": [
          0,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 0
      },
      {
        "trend": "digital-sovereignty-and-data-localisation",
        "scenario": "S01",
        "scores": [
          1,
          2,
          5
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "digital-sovereignty-and-data-localisation",
        "scenario": "S12",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          5
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "digital-sovereignty-and-data-localisation",
        "scenario": "S13",
        "scores": [
          0,
          1,
          5
        ],
        "kept": 1
      },
      {
        "trend": "biometric-identification",
        "scenario": "S09",
        "scores": [
          0,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 0
      },
      {
        "trend": "earth-observation-and-geospatial-sensing",
        "scenario": "S14",
        "scores": [
          0,
          4,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 4
      },
      {
        "trend": "earth-observation-and-geospatial-sensing",
        "scenario": "S16",
        "scores": [
          0,
          3,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 3
      },
      {
        "trend": "commercial-launch-and-space-access",
        "scenario": "S14",
        "scores": [
          0,
          5,
          0
        ],
        "kept": 0
      },
      {
        "trend": "general-purpose-and-humanoid-robotics",
        "scenario": "S17",
        "scores": [
          0,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 0
      },
      {
        "trend": "advanced-materials",
        "scenario": "S01",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "advanced-materials",
        "scenario": "S17",
        "scores": [
          1,
          2,
          5
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "synthetic-biology-and-biomanufacturing",
        "scenario": "S16",
        "scores": [
          1,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 1
      },
      {
        "trend": "synthetic-biology-and-biomanufacturing",
        "scenario": "S17",
        "scores": [
          1,
          4,
          5
        ],
        "kept": 4
      },
      {
        "trend": "gene-editing-and-cell-therapies",
        "scenario": "S19",
        "scores": [
          0,
          4,
          0
        ],
        "kept": 0
      },
      {
        "trend": "data-centre-power-and-water-demand",
        "scenario": "S04",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "distributed-power",
        "scenario": "S15",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "electric-transport-and-charging-networks",
        "scenario": "S04",
        "scores": [
          1,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 1
      },
      {
        "trend": "electrification-of-heat-and-industry",
        "scenario": "S15",
        "scores": [
          3,
          0,
          5
        ],
        "kept": 3
      },
      {
        "trend": "grid-expansion-and-demand-flexibility",
        "scenario": "S15",
        "scores": [
          5,
          0,
          6
        ],
        "kept": 5
      },
      {
        "trend": "renewable-generation-expansion",
        "scenario": "S03",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "firm-and-black-start-capacity",
        "scenario": "S03",
        "scores": [
          0,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 0
      },
      {
        "trend": "firm-and-black-start-capacity",
        "scenario": "S07",
        "scores": [
          3,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 3
      },
      {
        "trend": "firm-and-black-start-capacity",
        "scenario": "S15",
        "scores": [
          4,
          0,
          5
        ],
        "kept": 4
      },
      {
        "trend": "fossil-fuel-supply-and-refining",
        "scenario": "S04",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "fossil-fuel-supply-and-refining",
        "scenario": "S14",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "fossil-fuel-supply-and-refining",
        "scenario": "S15",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          5
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "reliable-energy-access-gaps",
        "scenario": "S04",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "reliable-energy-access-gaps",
        "scenario": "S15",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          5
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "strategic-stockpiles-and-reserves",
        "scenario": "S01",
        "scores": [
          4,
          0,
          5
        ],
        "kept": 4
      },
      {
        "trend": "strategic-stockpiles-and-reserves",
        "scenario": "S04",
        "scores": [
          3,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 3
      },
      {
        "trend": "strategic-stockpiles-and-reserves",
        "scenario": "S10",
        "scores": [
          3,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 3
      },
      {
        "trend": "infrastructure-ageing-and-maintenance-backlog",
        "scenario": "S11",
        "scores": [
          0,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 0
      },
      {
        "trend": "infrastructure-ageing-and-maintenance-backlog",
        "scenario": "S15",
        "scores": [
          1,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 1
      },
      {
        "trend": "climate-change-and-physical-risk",
        "scenario": "S07",
        "scores": [
          5,
          0,
          5
        ],
        "kept": 5
      },
      {
        "trend": "climate-change-and-physical-risk",
        "scenario": "S16",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "urban-population-concentration",
        "scenario": "S04",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "urban-population-concentration",
        "scenario": "S10",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "water-treatment-and-desalination",
        "scenario": "S04",
        "scores": [
          3,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 3
      },
      {
        "trend": "water-treatment-and-desalination",
        "scenario": "S07",
        "scores": [
          3,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 3
      },
      {
        "trend": "dams-reservoirs-and-flood-defence",
        "scenario": "S07",
        "scores": [
          5,
          0,
          5
        ],
        "kept": 5
      },
      {
        "trend": "biodiversity-and-ecosystem-loss",
        "scenario": "S07",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "food-storage-and-cold-chains",
        "scenario": "S20",
        "scores": [
          3,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 3
      },
      {
        "trend": "next-generation-mobile-networks",
        "scenario": "S01",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 2
      },
      {
        "trend": "connected-infrastructure-operation",
        "scenario": "S09",
        "scores": [
          3,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 3
      },
      {
        "trend": "satellite-connectivity-expansion",
        "scenario": "S07",
        "scores": [
          4,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 4
      },
      {
        "trend": "great-power-competition",
        "scenario": "S14",
        "scores": [
          2,
          0,
          4
        ],
        "kept": 2
      }
    ]
  }
}